{"id": "1207876485635178498", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T09:00:00Z", "msg": "904\nWTPA44 PHFO 060857\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  41\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026\n\nLowell remains an impressive hurricane, with a warm and well-defined \neye surrounded by a generally symmetric eyewall. However, infrared \nimagery shows some warming of the cloud tops within portions of the \neyewall. Recent microwave imagery also shows some hints of an outer \neyewall-like feature, although it currently appears more like a \nconvective band and is not sufficiently organized to confirm that an \neyewall replacement cycle is beginning. Subjective Dvorak Current \nIntensity estimates range from 5.5 from JTWC to 6.0 from HFO, \ncorresponding to 102 to 115 kt, while objective intensity estimates \ngenerally range from 100 to 120 kt. Based on a blend of these \nestimates and the gradual weakening trend, the initial intensity is \nlowered to 110 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a Category 3 \nhurricane.\n \nLowell continues to gain latitude and has begun to make its\nanticipated turn, with an initial motion of 325/4 kt. A cutoff upper\nlow north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue southwestward during\nthe next couple of days. As Lowell becomes increasingly influenced\nby this feature, the hurricane should turn northward on Sunday and\nthen north-northeastward while accelerating Sunday night and Monday.\nThe latest track guidance has shifted slightly eastward, but remains\nin generally good agreement on the overall evolution of Lowell's\nmotion. The NHC track forecast has also been shifted slightly\neastward and represents a blend of the previous forecast, the simple\nand multi-model consensus aids TVCN and HCCA, and the Google\nDeepMind ensemble mean. After passing west of the main Hawaiian\nIslands, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and\nslow as weak ridging builds to the north of the cyclone.\n \nSome fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the short term due \nto potential inner-core structural changes. However, the overall \ntrend is expected to be toward continued weakening. The environment \nshould remain generally favorable through early Sunday, but \ndeep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to increase markedly \nduring the 24- to 48-h period as Lowell turns northward and then  \nnorth-northeastward and accelerates. Increasing dry mid-level air \nshould also become entrained into the circulation during this time. \nThese hostile environmental conditions are expected to result in a \nfaster rate of weakening by Monday night and Tuesday. Despite the \nexpected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful \nhurricane when it passes west of Kauai County Monday night and \nacross portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. \nThereafter, strong vertical wind shear, drier air, and progressively \ncooler waters should result in continued weakening. The NHC \nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and generally \nlies within the middle to upper end of the intensity guidance \nenvelope.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into\nearly Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Kauai\nCounty, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions\nare possible beginning Monday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for\nportions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from\nNihoa to French Frigate Shoals, where hurricane conditions are\npossible beginning Monday.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to \nimpact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through \nearly next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash \nflooding and mudslides, especially on Kauai and portions of the Big \nIsland.\n \n3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian\nIslands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions\nof Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation\nof low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/0900Z 14.1N 163.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 14.8N 163.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 16.3N 163.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 18.5N 163.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 21.4N 162.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 60H  08/1800Z 24.1N 162.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 25.7N 162.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 27.2N 165.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 27.5N 170.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}