{"id": "1207874623532105730", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T09:00:00Z", "msg": "755\nWTPZ43 KNHC 060847\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026\n\nConvection associated with Marie, while showing well organized \nbanding,  has diminished some in intensity since the last advisory. \nHowever, this has not yet translated into a notable weakening in the \nvarious satellite intensity estimates. Thus, the initial intensity \nremains a possibly generous 80 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 315/7 kt. Marie is currently being steered by \na mid- to upper-level ridge to the northeast and heading for a \nbreak in the ridge caused by a large trough over the U. S. West \nCoast. This trough is forecast to move northeastward during the \nnext 24 h, allowing some ridging to develop north of Marie and turn \nthe cyclone west-northwestward. By 48 h, a new trough developing to \nthe northwest of Marie should turn the cyclone back to a northwest \nmotion, with the low-level center continuing this general motion \nuntil the system dissipates.  The new forecast track is in good \nagreement with the HCCA Corrected Consensus, the Google DeepMind \nensemble mean, and the Florida State Superensemble.\n\nMarie is starting to move into sea surface temperatures below 26C, \nand the the temperatures get progressively colder along the \nforecast track. This, combined with some dry air entrainment, \nshould start a steady weakening later today.  After 48 h, \nincreasing shear should cause the cyclone to become decoupled \nvertically, which should lead to the convection dissipating and the \ncyclone becoming post-tropical between 72-96 h. The global models \nforecast the low-level circulation to dissipate completely by 120 h, \nand the intensity forecast follows this.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/0900Z 23.1N 121.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 23.8N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 24.5N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 25.1N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 25.8N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  08/1800Z 27.0N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 28.7N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 32.7N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}