{"id": "1207873640373223426", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T09:00:00Z", "msg": "483\nWTPA45 PHFO 060842\nTCDCP5\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  40\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026\n \nThe environment around Karina continues to hinder the cyclone, based\non the data from the satellite imagery via southerly vertical wind\nshear, dry air, and cool sea-surface temperatures. The low-level\ncenter remains exposed and what is left of the convection is still\nlimited to the north side of the storm. The subjective Dvorak fixes\nfrom JTWC and HFO give T2.5/35 kt and the objective intensity\nestimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 27-49 kt. However ASCAT\nfixes from Metop-B and Metop-C have shown that there is a cluster of\n50 kt winds within the northwestern portion of the storm. Therefore,\nthe intensity for this advisory has been held at 50 kt.\n \nKarina is expected to continue to weaken as the hostile conditions\nare not expected to abate. The cyclone should dissipate within the \nnext couple of days, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulate satellite \nimages show all of the deep convection dissipating late Sunday or \nearly Monday. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to \nthe previous forecast.\n \nThe storm is currently moving slowly to the west-northwest at about\n5 kt. A continued west to west-northwest motion with a gradual\nincrease in forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days\nas the storm moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.\nThe track forecast is similar to the previous one with just some\nsmall adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/0900Z 22.6N 144.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 22.8N 145.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 23.0N 146.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 23.3N 148.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  08/0600Z 23.7N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  08/1800Z 24.1N 153.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}