{"id": "1207801370293665794", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T03:00:00Z", "msg": "103\nWTPA44 PHFO 060235\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  40\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026\n \nLowell remains an impressive and well-organized major hurricane this \nafternoon, although satellite imagery suggests that some weakening \nhas occurred during the past several hours. The eye remains well \ndefined and is surrounded by a largely symmetric eyewall, but \nvisible and infrared imagery show some erosion of the convection \nwithin the northeastern portion of the eyewall, where cloud-top \ntemperatures have warmed. This could be the result of some mid-level \ndry air becoming entrained into the inner core. Although an eyewall \nreplacement cycle cannot be ruled out, there are still no recent \nmicrowave data to indicate that a secondary eyewall has formed. \nSubjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are \nboth 6.0, corresponding to 115 kt, while objective intensity \nestimates range from about 105 to 125 kt. Based on a blend of these \ndata and the modest degradation of the satellite presentation, the \ninitial intensity is lowered to 115 kt for this advisory. A NOAA \nG-IV aircraft is currently sampling the environment surrounding \nLowell, and these data should be incorporated into upcoming model \ncycles.\n \nLowell has continued to slowly gain latitude, with an initial motion \nof 300/4 kt. A cutoff upper-level low north-northeast of the \nHawaiian Islands is forecast to move southwestward during the next \ncouple of days. As Lowell becomes increasingly influenced by this \nfeature, the hurricane should turn northward on Sunday and then \nnorth-northeastward while accelerating Sunday night and Monday. The \ntrack guidance remains in good agreement and continues to show the \ncenter of Lowell passing west of Kauai County late Monday into early \nTuesday. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of \nthe previous advisory and brings the center of Lowell about 150 to \n175 n mi west of Niihau around the time of closest approach. After \npassing the main Hawaiian Islands, Lowell is forecast to turn \nwest-northwestward and slow as weak ridging builds to the north of \nthe cyclone.\n \nSome fluctuations in intensity remain possible through early Sunday \ndue to internal structural changes. However, the overall trend is \nexpected to be toward gradual weakening. Deep-layer vertical wind \nshear is forecast to increase substantially beginning Sunday as \nLowell turns northward and accelerates toward the vicinity of the \nwestern main Hawaiian Islands. Increasingly dry mid-level air should \nalso become entrained into the circulation during this time. These \nincreasingly hostile environmental conditions should cause the rate \nof weakening to increase Sunday night and Monday. Despite the \nexpected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a major hurricane \nwhen it makes its closest approach to Kauai County and passes across \nportions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. \nThereafter, a combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier \nair should result in continued weakening. The latest NHC intensity \nforecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into\nearly Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Kauai\nCounty, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions\nare possible beginning Monday. A Hurricane Watch has been issued\nfor portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from\nNihoa to French Frigate Shoals.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to \nimpact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through \nearly next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash \nflooding and mudslides, especially on Kauai and portions of the Big \nIsland.\n\n3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian\nIslands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions\nof Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation\nof low-lying areas late Monday into Monday night.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/0300Z 13.7N 163.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 14.4N 163.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 15.5N 164.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 17.2N 163.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 19.7N 162.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  08/1200Z 22.7N 162.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 25.0N 162.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 26.8N 164.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 27.3N 168.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}