{"id": "1207801075693879298", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T03:00:00Z", "msg": "092\nWTPZ43 KNHC 060233\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026\n \nThe eye of Marie has become increasingly ragged and misshapen over \nthe past few hours, while cloud tops in its center have begun to \ncool. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass from earlier this evening \ndepicted a vertically aligned cyclone, but the eyewall remained \npoorly defined along the western and southwestern sides. Objective \nand subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 77-94 kt. \nHowever, given the degradation in structure, the initial intensity \nis set at 80 kt for this advisory. \n\nMarie is moving northwestward around 6 kt, steered by a strong \nmid-level ridge anchored over the central United States. This \ngeneral motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. As Marie \nweakens and becomes more shallow, a turn back toward the \nwest-northwest is forecast as the cyclone becomes increasingly \nsteered by the low-level flow. By midweek, a closed low moving \nsouthward along the U.S. West Coast is expected to induce an \nacceleration toward the northwestward, followed by a turn toward the \nnorth. \n\nEnvironmental conditions are expected to gradually become less \nfavorable over the next couple days as Marie moves over cooler sea \nsurface temperatures, resulting in slow weakening into early next \nweek. More rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter as increasing \nwind shear decouples the cyclone and displaces any remaining \nconvection well to the north of its center. The latest NHC forecast \ncalls for Marie to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h, \nfollowed by dissipation by 120 h. The NHC track and intensity \nforecasts are very close to the HCCA and Google DeepMind consensus \naids.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/0300Z 22.6N 121.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 24.0N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 24.6N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 25.2N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  08/1200Z 26.1N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 27.5N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 31.4N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}