{"id": "1207800600386699266", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T03:00:00Z", "msg": "066\nWTPA45 PHFO 060231\nTCDCP5\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  39\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026\n \n \nSoutherly vertical wind shear, dry air, and cool waters are taking a\ntoll on Karina. The low-level center is completely exposed, and\ndeep convection is limited to some bands on the north side of the\ncirculation. Accordingly, the satellite intensity estimates are\ndropping and currently range from 35 to about 60 kt. The initial\nintensity is lowered to 50 kt, and that could be a little generous.\n \nContinued weakening is expected as the hostile environmental\nconditions are not expected to abate. These factors should cause\nsteady weakening, and dissipation within a few days. The GFS and\nECMWF simulated satellite images show all of the deep convection\ndissipating late Sunday or early Monday. The intensity forecast is a\ntouch lower than the previous one, and post-tropical transition has\nbeen moved up to 36 h based on the model guidance.\n \nThe storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest at about 5 kt. A\ncontinued west to west-northwest motion with a gradual increase in\nforward speed is forecast over the next couple of days as the storm\nmoves on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The track\nforecast is similar to the previous one, and is based on a blend of\nthe HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, and the Google DeepMind ensemble\nmean.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/0300Z 22.0N 143.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 22.4N 144.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 22.8N 145.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 23.0N 147.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  08/0000Z 23.3N 149.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  08/1200Z 23.7N 152.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}