{"id": "1207732153488080898", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T21:00:00Z", "msg": "091\nWTPA44 PHFO 052043\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  39\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026\n \nLowell's satellite presentation has degraded further this morning \nwith what appears to be a moat developing around the eyewall in \nvisible and satellite imagery. This could suggest that Lowell is \nbeginning to go through an eyewall replacement, but the most recent \nmicrowave data did not show signs of a secondary eyewall. It's also \npossible that the hurricane has ingested dry air that is eroding \nsome of the convection outside of the inner core. Either way, \nsubjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers and objective estimates \nnow support an initial intensity of 125 kt.\n\nLowell appears to have begun its expected turn, with the initial \nmotion now west-northwestward (285/6 kt). A deep-layer low located \nabout 500 n mi north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast \nto dip southwestward over the next couple of days, which will cause \nLowell to make a sharp northward to north-northeastward turn, \naccompanied by an increase in forward speed, by Sunday and Monday. \nThe track guidance has not changed much since the last cycle and \nremains in good agreement that Lowell's center will move 100-200 n \nmi to the west of Kauai County in 60-72 hours. Since the models \ndidn't change much, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to \nthe previous forecast. After passing the main Hawaiian Islands after \nday 3, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and slow \ndown as weak ridging again builds in north of the cyclone.\n \nThe official intensity forecast shows a steady intensity for the \nnext 12 hours or so, leaving the door open for possible \nfluctuations in intensity, especially if an eyewall replacement \ndoes occur. Overall, however, models suggest that gradual weakening \nwill continue, especially once deep-layer shear increases in 36-48 \nhours. The updated NHC intensity forecast has again been lowered \nslightly from the previous prediction to follow model trends, but \nit still shows Lowell being near or at major hurricane strength when \nit makes its closest approach to the western main Hawaiian Islands \nand passes across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National \nMonument. After day 3, the addition of cooler waters and drier air \nshould cause Lowell to weaken to a tropical storm by day 4.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to move close to the western Hawaiian Islands\nlate Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of wind and coastal \nflooding impacts for Kauai County at that time, and a tropical \nstorm watch will likely be issued later today. Residents and \ntourists should follow advice from local officials.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the \nHawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next \nweek. Periods of heavy rain may produce locally significant flash \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands\nduring the next several days. These swells are likely to increase\nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/2100Z 13.5N 163.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 13.9N 163.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 14.9N 164.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 16.2N 164.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 18.2N 163.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  08/0600Z 21.1N 162.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 23.9N 162.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 26.9N 163.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 27.6N 167.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}