{"id": "1207731661475840002", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T21:00:00Z", "msg": "880\nWTPZ43 KNHC 052040\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026\n \nMarie continues to exhibit a large ragged eye, around 60 n mi in\ndiameter. Satellite estimates of the hurricane's intensity are very\nsimilar to what they were 6 hours ago, and therefore the initial\nintensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. The heading of\nthe hurricane has been similarly steady, albeit at a slightly \nslower forward speed, with a motion estimate of 305/6 kt.\n\nMarie is moving along the western periphery of a ridge centered over \nthe southern United States and will likely continue on a generally \nnorthwestward heading for most of the weekend. A short-term bend \ntoward the west-northwest is still expected early next week as the \ncyclone weakens but it will ultimately accelerate northwestward as a \nmid- to upper-level trough digs quickly southward to the west of \nMarie by late Tuesday.\n\nA drier environment and cooler SSTs are still expected to cause \nMarie to slowly weaken during the next couple of days. The rate of \nweakening could increase after that as the environment gets more \nhostile and the aforementioned trough causes an increase in \nsoutherly wind shear across the cyclone. Marie is still expected to \nbecome a post-tropical remnant low near the 96 h mark, and could \ndissipate in about 5 days, though the forecast conservatively shows \na point at that time for now. The NHC track and intensity forecasts \nare very close to the HCCA and GDM consensus aids.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/2100Z 22.1N 120.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 22.7N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 23.6N 122.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 24.3N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 24.9N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  08/0600Z 25.5N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 26.7N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 30.3N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 34.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}