{"id": "1207730383621193730", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T21:00:00Z", "msg": "775\nWTPA45 PHFO 052034\nTCDCP5\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  38\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026\n \nVisible satellite imagery indicates that Karina's low-level \ncirculation has become totally decoupled from the mid- to \nupper-levels. Deep convection is now limited to a shield to the \nnorth of the cyclone. A blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current \nIntensity numbers from JTWC plus decreasing objective estimates from \nUW-CIMSS supported lowering the intensity estimate to 60 kt at 18Z. \nSince then, further degradation of the satellite appearance of \nKarina over the past few hours justify lowering the intensity \nestimate to 55 kt for this advisory. \n \nLargely because Karina has become shallow sooner than expected, the \ntropical storm has also moved south of the previous forecast track. \nThis has necessitated another southward shift to the NHC forecast, \nwhich is near the southern extreme of the reliable guidance \nenvelope. A further southward adjustment may be necessary in future \nadvisories. Karina is now forecast to move generally \nwest-northwestward to westward for the next couple of days, steered \nprimarily by low-level flow associated with a subtropical high \ncentered well north of the tropical storm. This motion will likely \ncontinue until Karina dissipates in a few days.\n\nFurther weakening from southwesterly shear and dry air is likely. \nThe official forecast calls for Karina to weaken slightly faster \nthan previously shown, but is generally similar and lies near the \nmiddle of the models, which are all in good agreement. Karina is \nforecast to become post-tropical in 2 days, and based on current \ntrends, it could occur sooner than that.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/2100Z 21.6N 143.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 22.0N 144.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 22.5N 145.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 22.8N 146.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 23.0N 148.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  08/0600Z 23.4N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}