{"id": "1207661271082139650", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T15:00:00Z", "msg": "769\nWTPZ43 KNHC 051442\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026\n \nMarie's appearance has changed little since the last advisory. \nRecent IR satellite imagery indicates the hurricane continues \nto have a ragged banding eye with a dry air wrapping around the \nnorth of its center. The initial intensity remains 80 kt for this \nadvisory, based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of 4.5/77 kt and \nthe UW-CIMSS objective estimates including SATCON, DPRINT, and \nDMINT which were all around 80 kt as of 1200 UTC.\n\nOnly very slight changes were made to the NHC forecast for Marie to \nshow a slightly faster storm motion during the next couple of days. \nOtherwise, the forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and \nremains heavily based on the HCCA consensus. The hurricane is \nforecast to move northwestward for the next day or two, generally \nalong the western periphery of a ridge centered over the southern \nUnited States. Slow weakening is expected during this period as the \ncyclone encounters gradually drier air (SHIPS diagnostics indicate \nenvironmental RH below 60 percent) and SSTs of 25-27 deg C. \n\nA temporary west-northwestward bend will be possible next week as \nMarie becomes weaker and shallower, but the cyclone should \nultimately accelerate northwestward or north-northwestward by \nlate Tuesday in response to a deep-layer trough that models \nindicate will build to its west. The forecast uncertainty increases \nduring this period, but the model spread has decreased since \nyesterday so confidence in the forecast is growing. Simulated \nsatellite imagery indicates Marie will lose its remaining deep \nconvection and become a remnant low near or just after 96 h.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/1500Z 21.8N 120.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 22.5N 121.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 23.3N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 24.1N 123.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 24.7N 124.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  08/0000Z 25.4N 125.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 26.5N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 29.4N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 33.3N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}