{"id": "1207661081391235074", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T15:00:00Z", "msg": "759\nWTPA44 PHFO 051441\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  38\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026\n\nA little bit of erosion of the convection has occurred near\nLowell's eastern eyewall this morning, possibly due to mid-level\nshear and intrusion of dry air. Regardless, Lowell is still a\npowerful category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds\nestimated to be 130 kt. The latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers\nfrom HFO and JTWC are 6.5/127 kt, and the UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimate,\nwhich has been tracking well with Lowell's recent intensity\nchanges, is around 130 kt. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission\nis scheduled for later this morning.\n \nLowell is moving just north of due west, or 275/6 kt, as weak\nmid-level ridging barely holds on to the north. A deep-layer low\nlocated about 600 n mi northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is\nforecast to dip southwestward over the next couple of days, further\neroding the ridge, and causing Lowell to make a sharp northward to\nnorth-northeastward turn by Sunday and Monday. The guidance is\ncoming into better focus on Lowell's path near the Hawaiian Islands,\nwith the bulk of the models taking the center 100-200 n mi to the\nwest of Kauai County in about 72 hours. An important note for this\nforecast, however, is that the HCCA corrected consensus and\nthe Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI), which have both been\nperforming well for this storm, lie along the eastern side of the\nguidance envelope. This required a slight eastward nudge to the\nofficial forecast between 60-96 hours. After passing the main\nHawaiian Islands after day 3, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the\nwest-northwest and slow down as weak ridging again builds in north\nof the cyclone.\n \nThe official intensity forecast shows a steady intensity for the \nnext 24 hours while the hurricane remains in a low-shear environment \nand over water temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius, but \nfluctuations up or down will be possible. Deep-layer shear is \nexpected to increase in about 48 hours and peak around 72 hours as \nLowell approaches an upper-level trough to its northwest, which \nshould induce a steady weakening trend. The updated NHC intensity \nforecast is a bit lower than the previous prediction, trending \ntoward the latest guidance envelope, but it still shows Lowell being \nnear or at major hurricane strength when it makes its closest \napproach to the western main Hawaiian Islands and passes across \nportions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. After \nday 3, the addition of cooler waters and drier air should cause \nLowell to weaken to a tropical storm by day 5.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to move close to the western Hawaiian Islands \nlate Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of storm surge and \nwind impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, \nearly next week and watches will likely be issued later today. \nResidents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and \nfollow advice from local officials.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the\nHawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next\nweek. Periods of heavy rain may produce locally significant flash\nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands\nduring the next several days. These swells are likely to increase\nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/1500Z 13.4N 162.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 13.8N 163.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 14.6N 164.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 15.7N 164.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  08/0000Z 19.7N 163.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 22.5N 162.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 26.7N 163.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 28.3N 166.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}