{"id": "1207660978919997442", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T15:00:00Z", "msg": "748\nWTPA45 PHFO 051441\nTCDCP5\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  37\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026\n\nDvorak Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC for Karina at\n1200 UTC were still 65 kt, while the most recent DMINT and DPRINT\nestimates from UW-CIMSS are 62 and 69 kt, respectively. This\nis the basis for the 65 kt initial intensity, though the ragged\nconvective structure of Karina and other lower objective\nestimates from UW-CIMSS (like a SATCON of 56 kt) over the past few\nhours suggest this could be a generous estimate.\n \nLocating the center of Karina has become somewhat difficult, but the\nmotion is believed to still be toward the northwest at a slightly \nslower forward speed (305/7 kt). A deep-layer trough located to the \nnorth and northeast of Karina is allowing the cyclone to move more \ntoward the northwest since last night, but the combination of the \ncyclone weakening and becoming shallow plus a ridge building over \nthe north-central Pacific will likely cause Karina to turn \nwestward by late Sunday. Models have generally shifted southward \nsince yesterday, showing this turn occuring sooner than previously \nforecast, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. \nIt should be noted, however, that Karina is still expected to move \nwell north or northeast of the Hawaiian Islands as a weak cyclone \nbefore it dissipates early next week.\n \nA combination of southwesterly shear, dry air, and marginal SSTs \nshould cause Karina to quickly weaken during the next several days. \nIn fact, there are indications in satellite imagery that the low- \nand mid-level center of Karina are beginning to stretch apart due \nto that shear. No significant changes were made to the NHC \nintensity forecast, which is near the middle of the intensity \nguidance envelope. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/1500Z 21.7N 143.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 22.1N 143.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 22.6N 144.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 23.0N 145.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 23.4N 147.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  08/0000Z 23.9N 150.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}