{"id": "1207592542748573699", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T09:00:00Z", "msg": "955\nWTPA44 PHFO 050853\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  37\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026\n \nLowell remains an impressive hurricane this evening. Satellite\nimagery continues to show a very warm eye surrounded by a symmetric\neyewall, although the eye has become slightly more ragged and less\nwell defined during the past few hours. Some slight warming of the\ncloud tops has also occurred within the eastern portion of the\neyewall. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\naircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to 925 mb, and\nmaximum 700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to 141 kt. These\ndata support slightly lowering the initial intensity to 135 kt,\nmaking Lowell a Category 4 hurricane.\n \nThe initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally\nwestward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge\nto the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is\nexpected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to\nsoutheastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the\nsubtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply\nnorthward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the\nhurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and\nMonday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and\nhow sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the\nlocation and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to\nthe hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an\nupdate from the previous advisory and lies between the simple\nconsensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \nEnvironmental conditions should remain favorable for Lowell to \nmaintain much of its strength during the next 12 to 24 h, with weak \nvertical wind shear and a moist environment expected along the \nforecast track. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during \nthis time due to internal structural changes. Thereafter, Lowell is \nforecast to begin a gradual weakening trend as the vertical wind \nshear increases and the hurricane begins to entrain dry mid-level \nair. The rate of weakening is expected to increase by Monday as the \nshear becomes quite strong. Despite the expected weakening, Lowell \nis forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches the \nwesternmost Hawaiian Islands early next week. The NHC intensity \nforecast is essentially an updated of the previous forecast. \n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it\nmoves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday\nnight. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions\nof Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches\nwill likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have\ntheir hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local\nofficials.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to\nimpact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through\nearly next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding\nand mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands\nduring the next several days. These swells are likely to increase\nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/0900Z 13.3N 161.9W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 13.6N 162.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 14.2N 163.6W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 15.1N 164.1W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 60H  07/1800Z 18.5N 163.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 21.1N 162.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 25.5N 163.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 28.1N 165.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}