{"id": "1207590674503958531", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T09:00:00Z", "msg": "793\nWTPZ43 KNHC 050843\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026\n\nMarie currently has a ragged banding eye in satellite imagery, \nwhich is open to the north due to a patch of dry air currently \nlocated to the north of the center. The various satellite intensity \nestimates have edged down just a little, and based on them the \ninitial intensity is reduced to 80 kt.\n\nThe hurricane is now moving northwest or 315/7 kt. The cyclone \nshould continue slowly northwestward for the next two to three days \nas it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. After 72 h, \nMarie is forecast to encounter a large mid- to upper-level trough \nwest of California. As that happens, the cyclone is likely to \nbecome decoupled vertically, with the low-level part of the \ncirculation turning north-northwestward. The new track forecast is \nin best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and is \nsimilar to the previous forecast. As in the previous advisory, it \nshould be noted that model spread is quite large beyond 2 to 3 days.\n \nFor the first 24-36 h, Marie will be over seas surface temperatures \nof 26-27C and in a light vertical shear environment. During this \ntime, dry air entrainment is forecast to cause a slow weakening. \nThe weakening rate should increase after 36 h as the cyclone moves \nover colder water, and after 72 h strong shear associated with the \naforementioned trough should become the final factor in causing the \nassociated convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast has \na few tweaks to better follow the overall trend of the guidance, \nand it calls for the system to weaken until it degenerates to a \nremnant low around 120 h. \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/0900Z 21.4N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 22.1N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 22.9N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 23.6N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 24.3N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  07/1800Z 24.9N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 25.7N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 28.2N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 32.1N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}