{"id": "1207590576186228739", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T09:00:00Z", "msg": "786\nWTPA45 PHFO 050843\nTCDCP5\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  36\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation for Karina continues to look less \nimpressive, as most of the convection on the southern side of the \nhurricane has dissipated. The combination of wind shear, dry \nair, and cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to take \ntheir toll on the cyclone. The subjective Dvorak intensity \nestimates from both JTWC and HFO gave a T4.0/65 kt, and the  \nUW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates are in the range \nof 59-65 kt. Therefore, the intensity for Karina has been brought \ndown to 65 kt for this advisory. \n \nA subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina is steering the \nhurricane toward the northwest (305/8 kt). A mid- to upper-level \ntrough is expected to weaken the ridge over the next couple of \ndays, which should allow the cyclone to gain some latitude as it \nmoves toward the west-northwest or northwest. Then, a more \nwestward motion is forecast before the system is absorbed well to \nthe north of the Hawaiian Islands by the outer circulation of \nHurricane Lowell. The current NHC forecast track is very similar to \nthe previous forecast track with just a few minor adjustments to the \ntrack.\n\nKarina is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days as \nthe cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and encounters increasing \nsouthwesterly shear and more dry air. The combination of these \nelements will hinder the develop of convection in the inner core \nof the system. The current NHC intensity forecast has Karina \nweakening to a tropical storm Saturday and becoming a post-tropical \nlow around 60 h. This intensity forecast is very close to the most \nrecent multi-model consensus aids (HCCA and IVCN) and is similar to \nthe previous intensity forecast.  \n\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/0900Z 21.4N 142.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 21.9N 143.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 23.1N 145.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 23.5N 146.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  07/1800Z 24.0N 149.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  08/0600Z 24.6N 151.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}