{"id": "1207520864615989251", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T03:00:00Z", "msg": "463\nWTPA44 PHFO 050248\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  36\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026\n \nLowell remains an extremely impressive hurricane this afternoon. \nSatellite imagery continues to show a warm and well-defined eye \nsurrounded by a very symmetric eyewall. The ring of very cold cloud \ntops surrounding the eye has also expanded during the past few \nhours, with temperatures generally between -70 and -75 C. Data from \na NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure \nhas fallen about 8 mb since 18 UTC, with a recent minimum pressure \nof 922 mb. The aircraft also measured maximum 700-mb flight-level \nwinds of 153 kt in the northeastern eyewall. Given the continued \nstrengthening and impressive satellite presentation, the initial \nintensity is raised to 140 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a \nCategory 5 hurricane once again.\n \nThe initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally \nwestward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge \nto the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is \nexpected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to \nsoutheastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the \nsubtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply \nnorthward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the \nhurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and \nMonday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and \nhow sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the \nlocation and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to \nthe hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an \nupdate from the previous advisory and lies between the simple \nconsensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \nSome additional strengthening appears possible during the next 12 h. \nVertical wind shear is forecast to remain weak tonight while Lowell \nremains over warm waters, and the recent pressure fall and \nincreasingly impressive satellite presentation suggest that the \nhurricane could further intensify. Thereafter, some gradual \nweakening is forecast as the hurricane begins to encounter \nincreasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The weakening rate \nshould increase by Sunday and Monday as the shear strengthens \nconsiderably and Lowell moves over progressively cooler waters and \nbegins to entrain dry mid-level air. Despite the expected weakening, \nLowell is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches \nthe westernmost main Hawaiian Islands early next week. The latest \nNHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous advisory and \nremains above the guidance envelope through much of the period.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it\nmoves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday\nnight. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions\nof Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches\nwill likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have\ntheir hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local\nofficials.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to \nimpact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through \nearly next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding \nand mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands\nduring the next several days. These swells are likely to increase\nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/0300Z 13.3N 161.4W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 13.5N 162.3W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 13.8N 163.2W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 14.6N 163.9W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 15.6N 164.1W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 60H  07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 19.8N 163.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 24.4N 162.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 27.5N 164.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}