{"id": "1207517624372068355", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T03:00:00Z", "msg": "126\nWTPA45 PHFO 050232\nTCDCP5\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  35\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026\n\nKarina no longer has an apparent eye in visible satellite images. \nThe center of the hurricane is embedded underneath a small cold \novercast from an earlier burst of inner core convection. Water vapor \nimagery shows Karina is moving within a very dry mid-level \nenvironment, and some dry slots are noted within the circulation. \nThe objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have \ndecreased this cycle, with D-MINT, D-PRINT, and AiDT estimates \nranging from 62-71 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is \nslightly lowered to 70 kt.\n \nA subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina continues to steer the\nhurricane toward the west (280/8 kt). A mid- to upper-level trough\nis expected to weaken the ridge over the next couple of days, which\nshould allow Karina to gain some latitude as it moves toward the\nwest-northwest and northwest. Then, a more westward motion is\nforecast before the system is absorbed well to the north of the\nHawaiian Islands by the outer circulation of Hurricane Lowell.\nThere are no major changes to the updated track forecast, which\nlies slightly left of the previous prediction mainly due to a small\nsouthward adjustment to the initial position of Karina.\n \nGradual weakening is expected over the next few days as Katrina\nmoves over marginal SSTs and encounters increasing southwesterly\nshear. This shear should continue to import drier air into Karina's\ncirculation and disrupt its convective organization. The forecast\nshows Karina weakening to a tropical storm on Saturday and becoming\na post-tropical low in 60 h. This intensity prediction remains very\nclose to the latest multi-model consensus aids (HCCA and IVCN).\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/0300Z 20.7N 141.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 21.2N 142.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 21.9N 143.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 22.7N 144.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 23.2N 146.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  07/1200Z 23.6N 148.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  08/0000Z 24.1N 150.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}