{"id": "1207517624263966723", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-05T03:00:00Z", "msg": "125\nWTPZ43 KNHC 050232\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026\n \nMarie continues to display a ragged eye surrounded by a large area \nof convection with cloud tops between -50 to -60C.  Some dry air \nstill appears to be entraining into the core.  Recent subjective and \nobjective satellite intensity estimates range from 75-94 kt.  Thus, \nthe initial intensity will be held at 85 kt for this advisory.\n \nMarie has turned toward the northwest, with an initial motion \nestimate of 305/7 kt.  Marie will continue moving slowly \nnorthwestward during the next few days as it passes in between a \nridge to its west and ridging to its east.  By the middle of next \nweek, an upper-level trough near the U.S. West Coast may cause what \nis left of Marie to turn more toward the north-northwest in 4 to 5 \ndays. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous \nforecast, and lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the \nGoogle DeepMind (GDMI) ensemble mean. It should be noted that model \nspread is quite large beyond 2 to 3 days.\n\nIt appears as though Marie has already peaked in intensity (no more \nstrengthening is expected).  Although vertical wind shear is \nexpected to remain low for the next 3 days, Marie will be moving \ninto gradually cooler water temperatures as well as a drier air \nmass.  By 48 hours, water temperatures will be below 26C and the \nmid-level relative humidity will be below 50 percent.  The NHC \nintensity forecast shows Marie weakening to a tropical storm by hour \n48, and it shows a slightly faster weakening compared to the \nprevious forecast.  The intensity forecast is still near the higher \nend of the guidance suite.  Marie is likely to lose its convection \nby day 5 and become a post-tropical cyclone, and that scenario is \nindicated by both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/0300Z 20.8N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 21.5N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  07/1200Z 24.5N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 25.2N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 27.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 30.9N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}