{"msg": "798\nAXPZ20 KNHC 042157\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery\nthrough 2130 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Marie is centered near 20.2N 118.6W at 04/2100 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with\ngusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft. Numerous moderate to \nisolated strong convection is present within 240 nm NE and 180 nm\nSW semicircles. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected \ntonight. Dry air wrapping into Marie is maintaining the intensity\nat 85 kt, and slow weakening is expected over the next couple of\ndays. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions\nof the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California \nPeninsula for the next few days and are expected to spread \nnorthward to Southern California through the weekend. These \nswells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nMarie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nHurricane Karina is centered west of the area near 20.6N 141.1W \nat 04/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with \ngusts to 90 kt. While the center of Karina and most of the wind \nand wave impacts are west of 140W, winds are still reaching \ntropical storm strength from 20N to 22N and west of 138W, with \nvery rough seas. Strong to near- gale force winds along with \nrough to very rough seas cover the surrounding area from 18N to \n26N and west of 135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis observed east of the center from 20N to 22N west of 138W.\nKarina will continue to move westward over the next several days,\nallowing winds and seas east of 140W to subside through late Sat.\nPlease read the latest NHC Public Advisory at \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP5.shtml and Forecast/ \nAdvisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP5.shtml for \nmore details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\n \nA tropical wave is along 102W, extending from southern Mexico to\n02N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 100W and\n105W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N105W to 10N112W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring \nfrom 03N to 12N and east of 95W, from 10N to 15N between 100W and\n105W, and from 09N to 13N between 125W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on \nHurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico.\nModerate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas \nare affecting the offshore waters of Baja California not directly\nimpacted by Hurricane Marie. The pressure gradient between this \nhurricane and the ridge to the north continue to sustain moderate\nto fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the northern and \ncentral Gulf of California. Elsewhere, primarily light to gentle \nwinds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 20.2N 118.6W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving\nwest-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with\ngusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb.\nMarie will move to 20.9N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.8N 120.5W Sat\nafternoon, 22.6N 121.5W Sun morning, and 23.3N 122.3W Sun \nafternoon. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.0N \n123.3W Mon morning, then move to 24.7N 124.5W Mon afternoon. \nMarie will change little in intensity as it moves to 26.6N 126.7W\nTue afternoon. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result \nin fresh S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through \ntonight. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec may occur by the middle of next week. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure located north of the islands extends southward \ninto Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly \ntrade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters.\nFarther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are \noccurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4\nft seas prevail. Strong storms are noted in the offshore waters\nof Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas\nare expected near these storms.\nFor the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central \nAmerica will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into\nearly next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong\ngap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds \nare expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nIslands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will \nprevail. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information about\nHurricane Karina centered west of 140W to the southeast of the\nHawaiian Islands, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja \nCalifornia, Mexico.\nAway from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate \nor weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical \neastern Pacific.\nAn area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern\nMexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the\nsystem could become a tropical depression around the middle of \nnext week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, \nlikely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a \nmedium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1207463562940383235", "issued": "2026-09-04T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1207463562940383235"}