{"id": "1207448311519412227", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T21:00:00Z", "msg": "288\nWTPA45 PHFO 042039\nTCDCP5\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  34\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026\n\nRecent conventional satellite images show Karina has a ragged eye\nwith fragmented inner core convection surrounding its center. A\ncomparison of 89- and 37-GHz GMI and AMSR3 passive microwave images\nfrom earlier today show the vortex is tilted with height, likely the\nresult of some mid-level west-southwesterly shear impinging on the\nhurricane. These trends suggest Karina has continued to weaken, and\nits initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. This agrees well with a\nblend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from HFO and JTWC (4.5/77 kt\nand 4.0/65 kt, respectively), as well as D-PRINT and AiDT estimates\nranging from 70-75 kt.\n \nThe hurricane is being steered westward (280/9 kt) by a subtropical\nridge to the north of the hurricane. A northwestward motion is shown\nbetween 24-48 h as the narrow ridge becomes reoriented to the\nnortheast of Karina, followed by a slight turn toward the\nwest-northwest as the ridge builds to the north of the system. A\nsmall right-of-track adjustment was made to the NHC forecast from\n36-72 h based on the latest multi-model consensus trends, but\notherwise this prediction is very similar to the previous forecast.\n \nKarina is moving over marginal SSTs slightly lower than 26 deg C\nwithin a dry mid-level environment (relative humidity less than 40\npercent). With southwesterly shear likely to increase over Karina\nduring the next couple of days, these hostile conditions should\ncause continued weakening. Karina is forecast to become a tropical\nstorm in 24 h and post-tropical between 60-72 h as its remaining\nconvection is sheared away. Shortly thereafter, what's left of\nKarina will become absorbed by the outer circulation of Hurricane\nLowell, well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/2100Z 20.6N 141.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 21.0N 142.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 21.7N 143.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 22.5N 144.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 23.2N 145.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  07/0600Z 23.7N 146.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 24.1N 149.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}