{"id": "1207448311124099075", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T21:00:00Z", "msg": "287\nWTPA44 PHFO 042039\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  35\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026\n\nLowell has strengthened rapidly this morning. The eye of the \nhurricane has become larger and more distinct with multiple \nmesovortices evident in satellite images. In fact, the eye \ntemperature has increased significantly to around 20 C. In addition, \nthe convection in the eyewall is now notably more symmetric than it \nwas earlier. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that \nLowell is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale, with peak winds around 130 kt. Dropsonde data \nsuggests that the minimum pressure is around 926 mb. The initial \nwind radii has been expanded in all quadrants based on the aircraft \ndata.\n \nLowell continues to lose some latitude this morning, with the \ninitial motion estimated to be 255/6 kt. A general westward motion \nis expected through Saturday as the hurricane remains steered by the \nflow on the southeastern side of a mid-level ridge. On Sunday, the \nsteering pattern is expected to change when a mid- to upper-level \nlow moves southwestward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands, \neroding the southern portion of the ridge. This pattern change \nshould cause a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast with a \ngradual increase in forward speed, bringing the system close to the \nwesternmost Hawaiian Islands on Monday and Monday night. It should \nbe noted that predicting where and how sharply Lowell turns is \nchallenging as it will depend on the location and amplitude of the \nmid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane's location.  \nOverall, the guidance has not changed much this cycle, and the NHC \nofficial track forecast is very similar to the previous one. This \nprediction is in good agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble \nmean and simple consensus TVCN.\n \nLowell's rapid intensification episode could continue a little\nlonger since the hurricane has been maintaining a symmetric inner\ncore while remaining in conducive environmental conditions. Lowell\ncould regain category 5 intensity later today or tonight if this\nintensification trend continues. However, a pronounced increase in\nsoutherly or southwesterly vertical wind shear and progressively\ncooler waters should promote a steady weakening trend beginning in\na couple of days. Although there is good confidence that Lowell\nwill be weakening when it nears the westernmost Hawaiian Islands,\nit will very likely still be at or close to major hurricane\nstrength. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous\none and above the model guidance in the short term.  However, it is\nfairly similar to the past few advisories from 72 to 120 h.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it \nmoves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday \nnight. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions \nof Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches \nwill likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have \ntheir hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local \nofficials.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday\nafternoon and continue through early next week. This rainfall could\nproduce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep\nterrain.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands\nduring the next several days. These swells are likely to increase\nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/2100Z 13.2N 160.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 13.2N 161.7W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 13.5N 162.8W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 14.0N 163.6W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 15.0N 164.0W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 60H  07/0600Z 16.3N 163.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 18.4N 163.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 23.6N 162.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 27.0N 163.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}