{"id": "1207447717895897091", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T21:00:00Z", "msg": "245\nWTPZ43 KNHC 042036\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026\n \nMarie is contending with dry air today, which is likely inhibiting \nsignificant strengthening. A broad region of dry air persists \nimmediately west of the hurricane, and recent infrared satellite \nimagery shows a dry slot wrapping from the southwest to the \nnortheast around the center. This dry-air intrusion has \nsubstantially weakened the deep convection that was previously \nconcentrated north and east of the eye. However, recent objective \nand subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 73-90 kt. The \ninitial intensity is maintained at 85 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/7 kt, with the hurricane moving along the \nsoutheastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered between \nMarie and Hurricane Karina well to the west. A strong closed low \nmoving into the Pacific Northwest today is expected to weaken this \nridge and induce a turn toward the northwest tonight through this \nweekend. Through 72 h, the updated track forecast lies near the  \nmiddle of the guidance envelope, and is closest to the Google \nDeepMind and HCCA. As Marie weakens early next week, the cyclone is \nexpected to become increasingly steered by the low- to mid-level \nenvironmental flow. An eventual turn toward the north is possible by \nmidweek as a new trough approaches the western U.S. Beyond 72 h, the \nforecast has been nudged to the right of the previous advisory, and \nMarie is expected to remain well offshore of the western United \nStates. \n\nMarie is currently moving over warm waters of 27-28 C and through an \nenvironment of low wind shear, but dry mid-level air continues to \ntake its toll on the hurricane. Increasingly unfavorable upper-level \nwinds are expected to support very slow weakening over the next day \nor two, followed by more pronounced weakening early next week as \nMarie moves over cooler waters and into an increasingly dry \nmid-level environment. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF \nand GFS suggests that Marie may struggle to maintain organized \nconvection by the middle of next week. Accordingly, the latest NHC \nintensity forecast calls for Marie to degenerate into a \npost-tropical remnant low by day 5, with dissipation around day 6. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/2100Z 20.2N 118.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 20.9N 119.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 21.8N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 22.6N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  07/0600Z 24.0N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 24.7N 124.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 26.6N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 29.5N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}