{"msg": "786\nAXPZ20 KNHC 041614\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 20.1N 138.4W at 04/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts \nto 110 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 19N to 22N and west of 137W. A \ngeneral WNW motion is expected to continue for the next couple of \ndays. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, \nalthough Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next \nday or two.\nHurricane Marie is centered near 20.1N 117.9W at 04/1500 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with\ngusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Numerous moderate to \nisolated strong convection is present from 15N to 23N between \n111W and 120W. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected \nwithin the next couple of days. Some strengthening is possible \ntoday, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on \nSaturday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect \nportions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California\nPeninsula for the next few days and are expected to spread \nnorthward to Southern California through the weekend. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nMarie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\n \nA tropical wave is along 98W, extending from southern Mexico to \n02N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed near the wave axis. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough from 10N85W to 08N100W to 12N110W, and from\n11N120W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is occurring from 03N to 14N and east of 105W, and \nfrom 09N to 13N between 125W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on \nHurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico.\nModerate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas \nare affecting the offshore waters of Baja California not directly\nimpacted by Hurricane Marie. The pressure gradient between this \nhurricane and the ridge to the north continue to sustain moderate\nto fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the northern and \ncentral Gulf of California. Elsewhere, primarily light to gentle \nwinds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 20.1N 117.9W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving\nwest-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with\ngusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb.\nMarie will move to 20.7N 119.0W this evening, 21.5N 120.1W Sat\nmorning, 22.3N 121.0W Sat evening, 23.2N 122.0W Sun morning,\n23.9N 122.8W Sun evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near\n24.5N 123.9W Mon morning. Marie will change little in intensity\nas it moves to 25.9N 126.2W early Tue. Elsewhere, a tight \npressure gradient will result in fresh S to SE winds in the N \nGulf of California through tonight. Looking ahead, the next gap \nwind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by the middle of \nnext week. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure located north of the islands extends southward \ninto Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly \ntrade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters.\nFarther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are \noccurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4\nft seas prevail. Strong storms are noted in the offshore waters\nof Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas\nare expected near these storms.\nFor the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central \nAmerica will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into\nearly next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong\ngap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds \nare expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nIslands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will \nprevail. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information about \nHurricane Karina centered well east of Hawaii, and Hurricane \nMarie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico.\nAway from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate \nor weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical\neastern Pacific.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 20.4N 140.4W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving\nwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to\n105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Karina will\nmove to 20.7N 141.4W this evening, 21.4N 142.8W Sat morning,\nweaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 143.7W Sat evening, 22.8N\n144.8W Sun morning, 23.4N 146.1W Sun evening, and become\npost-tropical and move to 23.9N 148.0W Mon morning. Karina will\ndissipate early Tue.\nElsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of\nsouthwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is \npossible, and the system could become a tropical depression \naround the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward \nat 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This \nsystem has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 \ndays. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1207396164147609603", "issued": "2026-09-04T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1207396164147609603"}