{"id": "1207379188604993539", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T15:00:00Z", "msg": "690\nWTPA44 PHFO 041448\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  33\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026\n\nThere has not been any significant changes with Lowell over the past \nseveral hours. The major hurricane is maintaining an eye in \nsatellite imagery with an intense ring of deep convection around the \ncenter. The convective pattern is a little asymmetric with the \nstrongest thunderstorms currently occurring south of the center. The \nlatest satellite intensity estimates range from 102 to 120 kt, and \nbased on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 110 kt. The \nAir Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lowell \nlater today, and the information they collect will be very helpful \nin assessing the cyclone's intensity and structure.\n \nLowell has been losing some latitude this morning, with the initial \nmotion estimated to be just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A \ngeneral westward motion is expected through Saturday as Lowell \nremains steered by the flow on the southeastern side of a mid-level \nridge. On Sunday, the steering pattern is expected to change when a \nmid- to upper-level low moves southwestward north of the Hawaiian \nIslands, eroding the southern portion of the ridge. This pattern \nchange should cause a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast \nwith a gradual increase in forward speed, bringing the system close \nto the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Monday and Monday night. It \nshould be noted that predicting where and how sharply Lowell turns \nis challenging as it will depend on the location and amplitude of \nthe mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane's location. \nAlthough the models agree on the overall setup and all show Lowell \nturning, there is a notable amount of spread on how close the core \nof Lowell gets to Kauai County. This forecast is quite similar to \nthe previous one and near a blend of the best-performing aids so far \nthis season, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and consensus aids \nHCCA and TVCN.\n \nThe atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive \nfor strengthening over the next two to three days, and it seems \nlikely that Lowell will restrengthen back to a category 4 hurricane \nduring that period. Beyond that time, a notable increase in \nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters should cause \nsteady weakening. However, Lowell is still forecast to be near major \nhurricane strength when makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian \nIslands. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the \nmodel guidance, in best agreement with HCCA.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell could be near major hurricane strength when it moves \nclose to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. \nRegardless of the hurricane's exact track and intensity, there is a \nrisk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts for portions of \nHawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week.\n\n2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the \nprogress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to \nthe advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane \nplan and supply kit in place. Watches are likely to be issued for a \nportion of the state on Saturday.\n\n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands \nduring the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase \nearly next week.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/1500Z 13.3N 160.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}