{"id": "1207378696910405635", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T15:00:00Z", "msg": "659\nWTPZ41 KNHC 041445\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026\n \nSatellite imagery over the last several hours depicts Karina's \nnorthwest quadrant degrading as dry air circulates into the system. \nCloud top temperatures have also warmed slightly, with the deepest \nconvection concentrated across Karina's eastern semicircle. The \nlatest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB was 5.0/90 kt, \nwith objective ratings from CIMSS between 75-82 kt. Based on \nKarina's degrading structure, the initial intensity was reduced \nslightly to 80 kt.\n \nThe initial motion was set at 280/9 kt. Karina moved more westward \nthan previously anticipated over the last several hours, guided by a \nsubtropical ridge to its north. Later today and over the weekend, \nhowever, Karina is still anticipated to track more northwestward as \nan oncoming upper-level trough pushes the ridge to the east. \nUncertainty still remains as to how Karina will react to Lowell once \nthe two approach each other early next week, but model consensus \ngenerally exhibits a northwestward motion through the forecast \nperiod. The official track forecast was shifted leftward slightly in \nlight of Karina's more westward initial motion, but after 24 h, \ndifferences in track from the last advisory were minimal.\n \nGradual weakening is expected to continue as SHIPS guidance\ncontinues to depict Karina in a dry mid-level environment. Vertical\nwind shear is expected to increase as well, especially as Karina\nmakes its more northwestward turn as forecast. The rate of\nweakening was once again increased compared to the previous\nadvisory, and generally falls in line with the model consensus.\nKarina is still expected to become post-tropical early next week,\nbefore dissipating thereafter.\n\nNow that Karina is in the Central Pacific, additional information on \nthis hurricane can be found under Central Pacific basin headers \nbeginning with the next advisory at 1100 AM HST. Future Tropical \nCyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP5 and \nWMO header WTPA45 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on \nthe web at hurricanes.gov\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/1500Z 20.4N 140.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 20.7N 141.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 21.4N 142.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 22.0N 143.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 22.8N 144.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  07/0000Z 23.4N 146.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 23.9N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}