{"id": "1207378198663987203", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T15:00:00Z", "msg": "419\nWTPZ43 KNHC 041443\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026\n \nDeep convection is concentrated south and east of a ragged eye, \nwhile dry air continues to wrap around the northern and western \nportions of the circulation. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass showed \na slightly elongated eye along with erosion of the western eyewall. \nThe latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 5.0/90 kt, while \nremotely-sensed estimates span a broader range of 69-96 kt. The \ninitial intensity is maintained at 85 kt for this advisory. \n \nMarie is moving toward the west-northwest around 8 kt, and is \nflanked by a weak mid-level ridge to the west and a strong closed \nlow moving into the Pacific Northwest. The hurricane is expected to \ncontinue on this heading through tonight before the ridge weakens \nand the low digs southeastward over California, causing Marie to \nturn northwestward. Little change has been made to the previous \nforecast through days 3-4. After day 4, the weakening cyclone is \nexpected to become increasingly steered by the low- to mid-level \nenvironmental flow and remain well offshore over the eastern \nPacific. The official track forecast has been shifted to the right \nof the previous advisory beyond day 4, toward the latest Google \nDeepMind and corrected consensus (HCCA) guidance.\n\nDespite moving over warm waters and through an environment of low \nwind shear, Marie is contending with relatively dry mid-level air, \nwhich is likely limiting significant strengthening. Similar \nenvironmental conditions are expected through tonight, supporting \nlittle change in intensity. Beginning Saturday, Marie is forecast to \nencounter increasingly dry low- and mid-level air along with cooler \nsea surface temperatures, resulting in gradual weakening. More \nsubstantial weakening is expected next week as the hurricane moves \ninto increasingly unfavorable conditions. The official forecast is \nclose to the intensity model consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/1500Z 20.1N 117.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 20.7N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 21.5N 120.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 22.3N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 24.5N 123.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 25.9N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 28.5N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n \n"}