{"msg": "648\nAXPZ20 KNHC 040925\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0905 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 20.1N 138.4W at 04/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts \nto 110 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 19N to 22N and west of 137W. A \ngeneral WNW motion is expected to continue for the next couple of \ndays. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, \nalthough Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next \nday or two.\nHurricane Marie is centered near 19.9N 117.1W at 04/0900 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts \nto 105 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is present from 15N to 23N between 111W and 120W. \nA gradual turn toward the northwest is expected within the next \ncouple of days. Some strengthening is possible today, but a slow \nweakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday. Swells generated \nby Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest \nMexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and \nare expected to spread northward to Southern California through the \nweekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nMarie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\n \nA tropical wave is along 98W, extending from southern Mexico to \n02N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed near the wave axis. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast\nof Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N93W and to 09N109W and then from\n13N121W to 13N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is occurring from 02N to 12N and east of 115W. \nIsolated to scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to \n15N and west of 113W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on \nHurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico.\nModerate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas \nare affecting the offshore waters of Baja California not directly\nimpacted by Hurricane Marie. The pressure gradient between this \nhurricane and the ridge to the north continue to sustain moderate\nto fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the northern and \ncentral Gulf of California. Elsewhere, primarily light to gentle \nwinds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 19.9N 117.1W at 2 AM\nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.3N 118.1W this \nafternoon, 21.0N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.9N 120.5W Sat afternoon, \n22.7N 121.4W Sun morning, 23.5N 122.3W Sun afternoon, and weaken \nto a tropical storm near 24.2N 123.3W Mon morning. Marie will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to the 25.3N 125.8W early \nTue. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh S \nto SE winds in the N Gulf of California through tonight. Looking\nahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may \noccur by the middle of next week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure located north of the islands extends southward \ninto Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly \ntrade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters.\nFarther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are \noccurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4\nft seas prevail. Strong storms are noted in the offshore waters\nof Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas\nare expected near these storms.\nFor the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central \nAmerica will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into\nearly next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong\ngap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds \nare expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nIslands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will \nprevail. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information about \nHurricane Karina centered well east of Hawaii, and Hurricane \nMarie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico.\nAway from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate \nor weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical\neastern Pacific.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 20.4N 139.3W at 2 AM\nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 972 mb. Karina will move into the Central Pacific \nlate this morning or early afternoon. Hurricane Marie is near\n19.9N 117.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. \nMaximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.3N \n118.1W this afternoon, 21.0N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.9N 120.5W Sat\nafternoon, 22.7N 121.4W Sun morning, 23.5N 122.3W Sun afternoon,\nand weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 123.3W Mon morning. \nMarie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 25.3N \n125.8W early Tue.\nElsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of\nsouthwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is \npossible, and the system could become a tropical depression \naround the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward \nat 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This \nsystem has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 \ndays. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1207315720414429187", "issued": "2026-09-04T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1207315720414429187"}