{"id": "1207310158536933379", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T09:00:00Z", "msg": "778\nWTPA44 PHFO 040856\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  32\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nSatellite images show that Lowell's eye has become less distinct \nduring the past several hours, though very deep convection is \nongoing in the eyewall.  The infrared presentation also suggests \nthat Lowell has a double eyewall structure, which is confirmed by \novernight microwave data.  The initial intensity is reduced to 110 \nkt on this advisory, reflective of a small decrease in the overall \nDvorak values and overall organization of the cloud pattern.  \n\nLowell still has plenty of time for re-strengthening since it will \nremain in a low-shear, warm-water environment for the next few \ndays.  It should be noted that the wind shear has been higher \nthan expected, especially in the mid-levels, which is possibly \ncausing the sharp edge currently observed in the deep convection \nin the eastern eyewall.  However, this shear should abate by the \nweekend, and there is a long window of generally favorable \nconditions for the current eyewall replacement cycle to complete. \nThus, the new NHC forecast continues to show some \nre-intensification, similar to the previous advisory and the \nguidance mean.  Around 72 h, Lowell is expected to encounter \nincreasing southwesterly shear that should cause weakening sometime \nearly next week. However, it is still forecast to be at major \nhurricane strength when makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian \nIslands.\n \nThere is no change to the initial motion of Lowell of 270/8 kt.  \nThe hurricane should gradually slow down during the next day or so \ndue to a deepening mid- to upper-level trough north of the Hawaiian\nIslands, which should cause a weaker subtropical ridge.  By late \nthis weekend, the trough is forecast to break down the ridge, \ncausing Lowell to move faster to the north or north-northeast late \nSunday into Monday.  This track would bring the center of Lowell \nnear or just west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late \nMonday into early Tuesday.  The guidance envelope has made a \nwestward shift on this advisory, seemingly due to a delayed \nnorthward turn.  The new NHC track forecast is nudged westward in \nline with the latest consensus and Google DeepMind guidance, but it \nshould be noted that the long-range track details are still of \nlower confidence.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it\nmoves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and\nMonday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact\ntrack of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and\nrainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.\n \n2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the\nprogress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to\nthe advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane\nplan and supply kit in place.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands\nduring the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase\nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0900Z 13.4N 159.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 13.4N 160.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 13.5N 161.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 13.7N 163.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 14.3N 163.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  06/1800Z 15.2N 164.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 16.6N 163.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 21.2N 162.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 26.3N 162.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}