{"id": "1207309876455276547", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T09:00:00Z", "msg": "756\nWTPZ43 KNHC 040855\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026\n\nMarie has numerous bands of deep convection in its circulation, but \nthe inner core is still not very well defined with a somewhat \nragged-looking eye.  The system has a prominent upper-level outflow \npattern, indicative of a low-shear environment.  Remotely-sensed \nintensity estimates are generally in the range of 80-90 kt, and the \ncurrent intensity estimate is kept at 85 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or around 295/8 kt, on \nthe southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge.  Global \nmodels depict a 500-mb trough swinging into California in a couple \nof days.  This evolution is likely to result in Marie turning \ntoward the northwest in 36 hours or so.  Later in the forecast \nperiod, the weakening cyclone should move more with the low- to \nmid-level environmental flow and remain well offshore over the \neastern Pacific.  The official track forecast is nudged a bit to \nthe right of the previous one in 3-5 days, toward the latest Google \nDeepMind and corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.\n\nMarie is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind \nshear for the next several days.  However SSTs are forecast to \ndecrease, and the system should be encounter a drier low- to \nmid-level air mass by 48 hours.  Some strengthening is forecast \nwhile the hurricane remains in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic \nenvironment through tonight.  Later, a weakening trend is likely as \nMarie encounters less favorable conditions.  The official forecast \nis close to the intensity model consensus.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0900Z 19.9N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 20.3N 118.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 21.0N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 21.9N 120.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 22.7N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  06/1800Z 23.5N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 24.2N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 25.3N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 27.4N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n \n"}