{"id": "1207309476658577411", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T09:00:00Z", "msg": "706\nWTPZ41 KNHC 040853\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n1100 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026\n\nThe eye of Karina has become a little less well-defined over the \npast several hours with some breaks in the eyewall evident in \nsatellite imagery.  The coldest cloud tops are around -60 deg C \nwith more deep convection prevalent over the eastern semicircle.  \nSubjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB have decreased \nsomewhat, as have most of the objective intensity estimates from \nUW-CIMSS.  The advisory intensity is reduced only slightly to 85 \nkt, which is close to the latest SATCON value from UW-CIMSS. \n\nThe hurricane continues moving west-northwestward with a motion \nestimate of 285/8 kt.  Karina should continue this general motion \nduring the next day or two while it is situated on the southern \nside of a mid-level ridge.  In 48 hours, a mid-level cyclone to the \nnorth of Hawaii is likely to cause a turn toward the northwest.  By \n96 hours, Karina should be a shallow weakening system and it will \nprobably turn leftward while interacting with the circulation of \nHurricane Lowell.  The official track forecast is very close to the \nprevious NHC prediction and follows the corrected model consensus \nguidance.\n\nWater vapor imagery shows Karina approaching an area of drier \nmid-level air which is likely to begin eroding the hurricane within \nthe next day or so.  The SHIPS model output shows a significant \nincrease in vertical wind shear commencing in about 36 hours.  \nAlthough SSTs along Karina's path are not expected to cool that \nmuch more during the next few days, the hostile atmospheric \nmoisture and shear are likely to cause Karina to weaken.  The \nsystem should become a post-tropical cyclone early next week, and \ndissipate soon thereafter. \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0900Z 20.4N 139.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 20.7N 140.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 21.3N 142.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 21.9N 143.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 22.5N 144.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  06/1800Z 23.3N 145.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 23.9N 147.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 25.3N 151.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}