{"id": "1207239374672461827", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T03:00:00Z", "msg": "825\nWTPZ43 KNHC 040256\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nThe convective state of Marie has improved slightly over the past 6 \nhours, with less evidence of the dry slotting that was observed \nearlier.  The center is embedded underneath the large convective \ncanopy.  A recent SSMIS pass was helpful in estimating the center \nposition.  The latest TAFB estimate remains T4.5/77 kt while the \nobjective intensity estimates have increased slightly to the 80-87 \nkt range.  The initial intensity is raised to 85 kt as the satellite \npresentation has improved since the time of the TAFB Dvorak fix.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt.  A \nslightly slower motion in the same direction is expected over the \nnext few days as Marie moves closer to a mid-level ridge located to \nits north.  In about 4 days, a mid- to upper-level trough \napproaching the west coast of the United States may induce a gradual \nturn toward the northwest.  Some of the model guidance has shifted \nto the right in the long-range forecast over the past couple of \ncycles, and the NHC forecast is shifted accordingly to the right \n(north) of the previous track at days 3-5.  The NHC forecast is just \na bit to the southwest of the latest HCCA and GDMI models at those \ntime ranges.  It should be noted that the spread in the track \nguidance remains large at days 4 and 5, and confidence in the track \nforecast is below average at those time ranges.\n \nThe vertical wind shear is expected to remain low along Marie's path \nfor the next 4 days.  Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and \natmospheric moisture will still remain favorable enough for some \nslight additional intensification to be possible through tonight. \nThereafter, SSTs and moisture will gradually decrease along Marie's \ntrack for the remainder of the forecast period.  This will lead to \ngradual weakening beginning on Saturday.  Very little change was \nmade to the first 2 days of the intensity forecast, during which \ntime the forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. \nA slightly faster rate of weakening is shown at days 4 and 5, and \nthis portion of the forecast lies closer to the middle of the \nguidance envelope.  The NHC forecast shows the cyclone still hanging \nonto tropical storm status at day 5 as it remains well offshore of \nthe Baja California Peninsula.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0300Z 19.6N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  06/1200Z 22.9N 121.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 23.5N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 26.4N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}