{"id": "1207237303388307459", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T03:00:00Z", "msg": "701\nWTPZ41 KNHC 040246\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nKarina continues to chug along as a strong hurricane, with a\nwell-established eye, despite dry air intrusion beginning to wrap\ninto the system. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB\nremains unchanged at a T5.0/90 kt, which compliments the objective\nestimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 87-90 kt. Given the above, the\ninitial intensity estimate remains unaltered at 90 kt.\n \nThe hurricane's initial motion has shifted northerly, now heading \nwest-northwestward at 285/9 kt. Ridging to the north of the system \nhas become eroded by an upper-level trough, which is expected to \ncause a turn to the northwest later this evening. The latest NHC \nforecast closely follows the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean, and is \nquite similar to the previous forecast. In about 3 days, Karina's \nproximity to Hurricane Lowell may also help induce a turn back \ntoward the west-northwest. Despite this more westward turn, Karina \nis not expected to be a threat to the Hawaiian Islands.\n\nThe latest SHIPS guidance depicts Karina will begin moving into an\nunfavorable environment over the next 12-24 h, showing an increase\nin vertical wind shear, cooling SSTs, and a steady desiccation.\nThese factors will cause Karina to weaken over the weekend, with the\nforecast calling for the system to become post-tropical by Monday\nand dissipating shortly thereafter. The official NHC intensity\nforecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, aligning\nclosely with the consensus aids.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0300Z 20.1N 138.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 20.4N 139.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.9N 141.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 21.5N 142.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 22.2N 143.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  06/1200Z 22.9N 144.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 23.6N 146.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 24.9N 150.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}