{"id": "1207237205418508291", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-04T03:00:00Z", "msg": "692\nWTPA44 PHFO 040245\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  31\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nLowell's cloud pattern has lost a little organization since the \nlast advisory, with the eye becoming clouded over at the top and \nthe eyewall convective tops becoming warmer and less symmetric.  A \nNOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level \nwinds of 116 kt, and data from the onboard radar showed winds near \n125 kt at 0.5 km above the surface. The central pressure was near \n943 mb. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is \nreduced to a possibly generous 115 kt. Earlier microwave data \nsuggested the possibility that Lowell was undergoing an eyewall \nreplacement cycle (ERC), and the aircraft flight-level winds showed \nan outer wind maxima in the northwestern semicircle. However, the \nonly recent microwave overpass was a partial hit that did not help \nresolve whether the ERC was completing or not.\n\nLowell remains in a generally favorable environment of high \noceanic heat content and light shear, and these conditions should \npersist during the next three days or so. This could allow some \nre-intensification after the ERC completes, and some of the \nintensity guidance shows strengthening between 24-48 h.  The new \nintensity forecast will do likewise and shows some modest \nstrengthening during this time.  Starting at 72 h, Lowell is \nexpected to encounter increasing southwesterly shear that should \ncause a substantial weakening. However, it is still forecast to be \nat or near major hurricane strength when making its closest \napproach to the Hawaiian Islands.\n \nLowell continues westward with an initial motion of 270/8 kt.  The \nridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days due to a \ndeveloping mid- to upper-level trough north of the Hawaiian \nIslands, which is reflected in a forecast slower forward speed. \nAfter 48 h, the trough will likely create a break in the ridge \nthat should cause Lowell to turn northward by 72 h and accelerate \nnorthward to north-northeastward after 72 h.  This track would \nbring the center of Lowell near or just west of the westernmost \nmain Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday. The track \nguidance is more tightly clustered than it was 24 h ago, and the \ntrack guidance envelope has changed little since the last advisory. \nBased on this, the new forecast track is similar to the previous \ntrack with only noise-level changes. However, the long-range track\ndetails are still of lower confidence, and residents in the Hawaiian\nIslands should closely monitor the latest NHC forecast updates.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it\nmoves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and\nMonday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact\ntrack of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and\nrainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.\n \n2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the\nprogress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to\nthe advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane\nplan and supply kit in place.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands\nduring the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase\nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/0300Z 13.5N 158.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 13.5N 159.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 13.6N 161.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 13.7N 162.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 14.1N 163.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  06/1200Z 14.9N 163.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 16.2N 163.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 20.4N 162.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 25.7N 162.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n \n"}