{"id": "1207166021566398467", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T21:00:00Z", "msg": "613\nWTPZ43 KNHC 032043\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nThe convection surrounding the center of Hurricane Marie has\nfluctuated today, with some mid-level dry air now appearing to wrap\naround its center. An earlier WSFM microwave pass depicted a compact\ncenter of circulation, but north-northeasterly wind shear has\nresulted in less-definition immediately north and east of the core.\nThe latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, while\nobjective intensity estimates have decreased a little from this\nmorning, and currently range from 66-81 kt. Recent wind observations\nfrom the Mexican Navy Weather Station on Clarion Island indicated\nsustained winds near 55 kt with a peak wind gust of 76 kt. Based on\nthese observations and the available intensity estimates, the\ninitial intensity is maintained at 80 kt for this advisory package.\n \nMarie is moving westward at 280/8 kt. A westward to\nwest-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is\nexpected during the next 48-72 h as a ridge of high pressure\nprevails to the northwest of the cyclone. Considerable spread\npersists within the track guidance beyond 72 h, largely due to\ndifferences in how a trough approaching the western United States\nwill influence the strength and position of the aforementioned\nridge. A stronger system moving into the western U.S. would erode\nthe ridge more substantially, resulting in a more northward track,\nwhile a weaker system would allow the ridge to remain stronger and\nfavor a more west-northwestward track. Little change was made to the\ntrack forecast through 72 h. Beyond that time, the forecast was\nshifted to the right of the previous track forecast and is now\ncloser to the middle of the track guidance. Confidence in the track\nforecast remains lower than normal.\n \nDecreasing wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 C and\nsufficiently moist mid-level air should support some strengthening\nover the next day or so. It is worth noting that the ECMWF and GFS\nSHIPS guidance maintain a small potential for rapid intensification\nduring this period, and because of this, the official NHC intensity\nforecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. The\nrate at which Marie weakens will be highly dependent on its eventual\ntrack. A more northward track would allow the hurricane to remain in\nslightly warmer waters for a longer period, while a more\nwest-northwestward track would bring Marie over cooler waters and\nlikely lead to faster weakening. The official forecast calls for\nslow weakening during the second half of the weekend, followed by\nmore steady weakening early next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/2100Z 19.3N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 19.6N 116.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 20.2N 117.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  06/0600Z 22.4N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 22.8N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 23.6N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 25.0N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}