{"id": "1207164743666008067", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T21:00:00Z", "msg": "354\nWTPA44 PHFO 032037\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  30\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nThe cloud pattern of Lowell suggests the hurricane is contending \nwith some easterly shear. Upper-level outflow is limited on the \neastern side of Lowell, and satellite images today have shown \nevidence of some dry air intrusions into the circulation. An 89-GHz \nAMSR3 passive microwave image received just after the previous \nadvisory indicated an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) was underway, \nwith a larger outer eyewall surrounding a weaker inner one. This \nis consistent with the larger eye now observed in recent visible \nimages of the hurricane. Lowell remains a formidable major \nhurricane, and the latest Dvorak CI numbers along with recent \nD-PRINT and SATCON estimates support holding a 120-kt intensity.\n\nLowell is moving over very warm waters with high oceanic heat \ncontent, and the environmental and oceanic conditions appear \nfavorable for Lowell to maintain its intensity or strengthen \nslightly during the next several days. Although it has experienced a \nbit more easterly shear than expected today, the hurricane has been \nresilient. In general, the intensity guidance shows little \nappreciable change in intensity during the next few days, with small \nfluctuations likely to occur related to internal dynamic processes \nwith limited predictability, such as future ERCs. Thus, the NHC \nintensity forecast maintains Lowell as a major hurricane with no net \nchange through 72 h. By days 4-5, some weakening is predicted as \nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear increases over Lowell. However, it \nis still forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when \nmaking its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands. \n\nThe hurricane continues moving westward (275/9 kt) to the south of a \nmid-level ridge over the Central Pacific. A gradually slower \nwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Then, a \nmid- to upper-level trough over the northern Pacific is forecast to \ndig southward and erode the steering ridge. As a result, Lowell is \npredicted to turn sharply toward the north or north-northeast this \nweekend, and then accelerate northward early next week. This track \nshould bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the \nwesternmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday. \nThere is less spread noted in the track guidance envelope at days \n3-5, and the NHC forecast remains between the simple (TVCN) and \ncorrected (HCCA) consensus aids. However, the long-range track \ndetails are of lower confidence, and residents in the Hawaiian \nIslands should closely monitor the latest NHC forecast updates.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it \nmoves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and \nMonday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact \ntrack of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and \nrainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.\n\n2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the \nprogress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to \nthe advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane \nplan and supply kit in place. \n\n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands \nduring the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase \nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/2100Z 13.6N 158.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 13.6N 159.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 13.7N 160.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 13.7N 161.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 14.0N 162.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  06/0600Z 14.5N 163.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 15.5N 163.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 19.0N 162.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 24.5N 162.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}