{"id": "1207163661774651395", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T21:00:00Z", "msg": "256\nWTPZ41 KNHC 032031\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n1100 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nKarina's cold cloud tops around the center appear more  \nasymmetrical on satellite imagery, with dry air wrapping into the \nsystem. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB gave an \nintensity estimate of 90 kt, while objective estimates from CIMSS \nranged from 90-95 kt. With Dvorak analyses continuing to trend \ndownward, along with Karina's degraded appearance on satellite \nimagery, the initial intensity estimate was decreased to 90 kt.\n \nKarina's initial motion was set slightly more westward at 275/9 kt.\nThe system continues to be guided by a subtropical ridge to its\nnorth, but is still expected to turn more west-northwestward\ninto the weekend as an upper-level trough moves in and weakens the \naforementioned ridge. Another complicating factor for Karina's \ntrack is for it to potentially interact with Lowell early next \nweek, which may pull Karina a bit more westward than the last \nadvisory had suggested. Global models seem to hint at this\npossibility, so the latest official track forecast reflects a\nslight westward shift, however Karina is not expected to be a \nthreat to the main Hawaiian Islands.\n \nThe environment surrounding Karina is becoming increasingly drier\nbased on latest SHIPS guidance, which should induce weakening \nin the short term. Marginal SSTs and increasing vertical\nwind shear are forecast to cause additional weakening over the \nweekend. Karina is expected to become a post-tropical system by \nMonday, before dissipating thereafter. The official NHC intensity \nforecast further hastens the rate of weakening, generally falling \nclose to the consensus aids.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/2100Z 19.8N 137.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 20.1N 139.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 20.5N 140.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 21.0N 142.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 21.8N 143.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 23.3N 145.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 24.7N 148.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}