{"msg": "181\nAXNT20 KNHC 031702\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 20W south of 20N. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted behind the wave from 10N to 17N and \nE of 20W, and also from 03N to 12N between 20W and 35W.\nA tropical wave is along 47W, south of 20N, moving westward at \naround 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to \n18N between 43W and 50W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are \nfrom 15N to 20N between 44W and 50W. \nA tropical wave is analyzed along 61/62W south of 21N, moving \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper- \nlevel trough to its west, and producing scattered moderate \nconvection from 20N to 25N between 57W and 65W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania\nnear 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N27W and then to \n11N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 08N59W. The convection in\nthe vicinity of the boundaries is associated with the tropical \nwaves described above.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered moderate convection continues along a developing surface\ntrough in the northeastern Gulf. Scattered showers are also\nongoing near a surface trouhg extending from the Bay of Campeche\ninto the south-central Gulf. Outside of convection, surface\nridging maintains gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight\nseas across the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure prevails over the region and\nwill generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas across the Gulf through the next few days. The \npresence of abundant tropical moisture will favor scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf \nthrough the weekend. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between ridging over the Atlantic and the\nColombia Low maintains fresh to strong E winds and 5-8 ft seas\noffshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 2-5 ft seas\nprevail from the remainder of the E and central Caribbean to the\nSW basin as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate or\nweaker winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Convergent surface\nwinds are leading to scattered moderate convection occurring over\nthe waters between Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical \nridge and lower pressure in northern South America will maintain \nfresh to pulsing strong trades along with moderate seas over the \ncentral Caribbean, and over the western portion of the eastern \nCaribbean through Sat night. These trades are forecast to increase\nto fresh to strong speeds while expanding in coverage over the \nsouth- central portion of the basin on Sun. Winds reaching near \ngale are expected Mon night and Tue night near Colombia and in the\nGulf of Venezuela. Fresh to pulsing strong east winds are \nexpected in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Tue night. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas \nwill continue across the remainder of the basin during the period.\n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA surface trough extends over the western Bahamas, and is \ngenerating some shower and thunderstorm activity over much of the\nBahamas and the regional waters. The remainder of the Atlantic \nforecast waters is under the influence of a ridge, with the main \nhigh pressure center of 1025 mb located NE of the Azores. Moderate\nto locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail across much of \nthe Atlantic S of 25N and away from any convection or tropical\nwaves. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft \nseas prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms\nwill continue over the waters W of about 70W through the end of \nthe week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift \nwestward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains\nin place. A cold front will then approach from the NW late this \nweekend enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms \nover the NW portion of the area. Moderate to fresh east to \nsoutheast winds are over the waters south of about 29N between 70W\nand 79W. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will provide for \ngenerally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the \nforecast waters.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1207122607844753411", "issued": "2026-09-03T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1207122607844753411"}