{"id": "1207096600847876099", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T15:00:00Z", "msg": "963\nWTPA44 PHFO 031450\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  29\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026\n\nLowell is still a powerful hurricane with a warm eye that is\napparent in infrared and proxy-visible satellite images. Overnight\nWSF-M passive microwave data showed some thinning of the convection\nin the eastern portion of the eyewall, possibly the result of some\nintrusion of drier mid-level air. However, recent conventional\nsatellite imagery shows colder cloud tops and a slightly thicker\nring of convection surrounding the center. Based on a blend of the\nDvorak current intensity (CI) estimates from JTWC and HFO, the\ninitial intensity is set at 120 kt for this advisory. The 34-kt wind\nradii were expanded, particularly on the north side of the\nhurricane, based on overnight scatterometer data. Another NOAA\naircraft research mission into Lowell is scheduled for later today.\n \nThe hurricane will move over warm waters while in a weaker shear\nenvironment during the next few days. These conducive environmental\nand oceanic conditions favor Lowell maintaining its major hurricane\nintensity, even as internal structural changes like eyewall\nreplacement cycles commence. Since these types of changes are\nextremely difficult to predict, the NHC intensity forecast follows a\nsimilar approach as the previous prediction and shows no net change\nthrough the end of the week (though some small fluctuations are\nexpected). By the weekend, southwesterly vertical wind shear is\nforecast to increase over Lowell, which should induce some weakening\nalong with a more asymmetric wind structure.\n \nLowell is being steered westward (270/9 kt) by a mid-level ridge to\nits north over the Central Pacific. A continued westward motion is\nexpected during the next couple of days. Then, the forecast becomes\nmore challenging as a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern\nPacific digs southward and erodes the steering ridge. This will\ncause Lowell to turn sharply northward or north-northeastward this\nweekend and then accelerate generally toward the north early next\nweek, passing near or west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands\nby day 5. The updated NHC track forecast lies between the corrected\n(HCCA) and simple (TVCN) track consensus aids, showing a sharper\nturn at days 3-4 but similar to the previous NHC prediction at day\n5. Remember that the average track errors at days 4-5 are around 150\nn mi and 200 n mi, respectively. There is lower confidence in the\nlong-range track forecast details, and future adjustments may be\nrequired. Residents in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest NHC\nforecast updates.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it\nmoves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and\nMonday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact\ntrack of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and\nrainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.\n \n2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the\nprogress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to\nthe advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane\nplan and supply kit in place.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands\nduring the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase\nearly next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/1500Z 13.5N 157.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 13.5N 158.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 13.6N 159.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 13.7N 161.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 13.9N 162.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  06/0000Z 14.3N 162.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 15.1N 163.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 17.6N 162.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 22.7N 162.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n \n"}