{"id": "1207096410608795651", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T15:00:00Z", "msg": "952\nWTPZ43 KNHC 031449\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nThe structure of Marie has improved this morning. First-light \nvisible satellite imagery shows convection becoming increasingly \nsymmetric around the hurricane's center, with colder cloud tops \nwrapping nearly completely around the core. The latest Dvorak \nintensity estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, while objective \nintensity estimates range from 68-83 kt. Given the improved \nsatellite presentation and upward trend in intensity estimates, the \ninitial intensity has been set at 80 kt for this advisory. \n \nMarie is moving west-northwestward around 9 kt, guided by a \nmid-level ridge to its northwest. This general motion is expected to \ncontinue over the next 2-3 days. By late this weekend into next \nweek, however, considerable spread develops in the track guidance as \nthe aforementioned ridge weakens and an upper-level low approaches \nthe West Coast of the United States. The strength of this low could \nhave a significant influence on Marie's long-range track. A stronger \nsystem moving into the western U.S. would erode the ridge more \nsubstantially and result in a more northward track, while a weaker \nsystem would allow the ridge to remain stronger and keep Marie on a \nmore west-northwestward heading. Given these uncertainties, \nconfidence in the track forecast is somewhat lower than normal. The \nlatest NHC forecast is similar to the previous track and remains \nvery close to the Google Deep Mind and HCCA solutions through 60 h. \nThereafter, the forecast has been nudged to the right of the \nprevious track through the remainder of the forecast period. \n\nThe hurricane is moving through warm waters around 28-29 C in an \nenvironment with low wind shear, moist mid-level air and favorable \nupper-level divergence. These conditions are expected to persist \nover the next 24-36 h, and Marie is forecast to gradually \nstrengthen. It is worth noting that the ECMWF and GFS SHIPS guidance \nindicate a small potential for rapid intensification during this \nperiod, and because of this, the official NHC forecast intensity \nremains near the top of the guidance envelope. The medium- to \nlong-range intensity forecast will depend strongly on Marie's track. \nA more northward track would allow the hurricane to remain in \nslightly warmer waters for a longer period, while a more \nwest-northwestward track would bring Marie over cooler waters and \nlikely result in a faster rate of weakening. The official NHC \nintensity forecast calls for Marie to begin slowly weakening this \nweekend as increasing mid-level dry air wraps around the hurricane, \nwith a more steady rate of weakening expected early next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/1500Z 19.2N 114.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 20.0N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 21.4N 119.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 22.6N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 23.3N 125.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 24.1N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}