{"id": "1207093945981009923", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T15:00:00Z", "msg": "615\nWTPZ41 KNHC 031437\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026\n \nLittle has changed in Karina's annular appearance over the last\nseveral hours. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB gave\nan intensity estimate of 102 kt, while objective estimates from\nCIMSS ranged from 90-95 kt. Given the continued downward trend\nacross subjective and objective Dvorak analysis, the initial\nintensity estimate was set at 100 kt.\n \nKarina's initial motion was set at 280/9 kt. The system is forecast\nto shift more west-northwest over the next couple of days, as it\ncontinues to be guided by a subtropical ridge to its north. By\nlate this weekend into early next week, an oncoming upper-level\ntrough is expected to pull Karina more to the northwest, away from\nthe main Hawaiian Islands. The official track forecast was little\nchanged from the previous advisory, with only slight adjustments\nwestward to reflect a blend of HCCA, GDMI, and the previous\nofficial track forecast.\n \nA steady weakening trend in Karina's intensity is still expected to\noccur as the system encounters an increasingly drier mid-level\nenvironment. After 24 h, Karina's weakening trend is\nforecast to hasten as vertical wind shear increases and SSTs\ndecrease, with the system expected to become post-tropical by Day\n4. The official intensity forecast increases the rate of weakening\ncompared to the previous advisory, falling just above most model\nguidance within the first 24 h before landing closer to guidance\nconsensus thereafter.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/1500Z 19.8N 136.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 20.1N 138.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 20.6N 139.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 21.0N 141.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 21.6N 142.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  06/0000Z 22.3N 143.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 23.2N 144.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 24.5N 147.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}