{"msg": "984\nAXNT20 KNHC 031011\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0945 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 20W south of 20N. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 33W to the \ncoast of W Africa.\nA tropical wave is along 45W, south of 20N, moving westward at \naround 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to \n17N between 41W and 49W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are \nfrom 15N to 20N between 40W and 48W. \nA tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, with axis \nalong 60W south of 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave \nis interacting with an upper-level trough to its west, and \nproducing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 24N between \n54W and 62W. Fresh to strong winds are near the northern end of \nthe wave axis, particularly from 19N to 21N between 55W and 59W. \nMoisture associated with the wave will increase the probability of\nrain across the Lesser Antilles today.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania\nnear 17N16W and continues westward to 14N30W to 10N47W. The ITCZ \nextends from 10N47W to 09N58W. The convection in the vicinity of\nthe boundaries is associated with the tropical waves described\nabove.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak 1016 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf near 29N86W\ndominates the basin, and is supporting light to gentle winds and \nslight seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE \nwinds over the west-central waters. Numerous showers and \nthunderstorms are affecting the western Florida peninsula and \ncoastal waters. Meanwhile, the remnants of Edouard continue to add\nheavy rainfall to flooded areas across east Texas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure in place over the region will\ngenerally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate\nseas across the Gulf through the next few days. The presence of \nabundant tropical moisture will favor scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf through the weekend. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA surface trough extends across the central Bahamas and central \nCuba generating scattered to numerous showers, with embedded \nthunderstorms, over most of Cuba and the Cayman Islands. An\nupper-level low over the SE Gulf of America and the Yucatan \npeninsula is also helping to induce this convective activity. \nThe pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area \nand the Colombian Low supports fresh to locally strong trade winds\nover the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela.\nModerate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the central \nCaribbean while mainly moderate trades are noted over the eastern \npart of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring in the \nNW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with the strongest winds, and 3 \nto 5 elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where seas are 1 to 3 \nft. \nFor the forecast, the trough will continue moving WNW through\ntonight while becoming diffuse. Elsewhere across the basin, the \npressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure\nin northern South America will maintain mostly fresh trades along\nwith moderate seas over the central Caribbean, and over the \nwestern portion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat night. These \ntrades are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds while \nexpanding in coverage over the south-central portion of the basin \non Sun. Winds reaching near gale are expected Mon night and Tue \nnight near Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong \neast winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Mon \nnight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate \nseas will continue across the remainder of the basin through the \nperiod.\n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nAs previously mentioned, a surface trough extends over the central\nBahamas and central Cuba, and is generating some shower and\nthunderstorm activity over the Bahamas and regional waters. The\nremainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence \nof a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located\nnear 27N48W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a \nsurface trough over Morocco and Western Sahara is promoting fresh \nto strong N to NE winds N of 20N and E of 22W, including the \nCanary Islands. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range with this winds. \nModerate to fresh winds are just offshore Hispaniola with moderate\nseas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms\nwill continue over the waters W of about 70W through the rest of \nthe week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift \nwestward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains\nin place. A cold front will then approach from the NW this weekend \nenhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms over the \nNW portion of the area. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will \nprovide for moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the \nforecast waters. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1207041675194138627", "issued": "2026-09-03T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1207041675194138627"}