{"id": "1207027295178391555", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T09:00:00Z", "msg": "947\nWTPA44 PHFO 030858\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  28\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026\n \nLowell's satellite presentation has continued to weaken this \nevening, with some thinning of the eyewall convection, though it \nremains a formidable hurricane.  The latest Dvorak intensity \nestimates have a wide range, from 102-125 kt.  Based on continuity \nfrom the earlier higher NOAA Hurricane Hunter data, the initial \nintensity is set to 125 kt. Lowell should remain in a low-shear, \nwarm-water environment for at least the next few days.  While the \nnew forecast shows no net changes, we expect fluctuations in \nintensity both up and down, dependent on nearly impossible to \npredict eyewall replacement cycles.  Vertical wind shear should \nincrease some by the end of the forecast period, so a more steady \nweakening is shown by that time. \n \nThe initial motion remains 270/9 kt.  Lowell is being steered by a \nlow- to mid-level ridge to the north, and due to this feature\nthe hurricane should continue moving westward for the next 2-3\ndays. After that, the track of the hurricane will be controlled by\na complex developing mid- to upper-level trough currently seen in \nwater vapor imagery near 32N 162W.  The feature is forecast to break \nthe ridge down over the weekend, which should cause Lowell to turn \nsharply northward or north-northeastward.  However, the details of \nthis turn are extremely difficult to diagnose at this time frame, \nand there is a wide range of possibilities.  The new NHC forecast is \na bit left of the last one in a few days time, but ends up very \nclose to the previous forecast at day 5.  Given the large spread, \nthis is a low-confidence prediction for early next week.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. The details of Lowell's long-range track and intensity forecasts\nare more uncertain than usual, and it is too soon to determine\npotential impacts in the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the\nprogress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. This is a good\ntime for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and\nsupply kit in place.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are expected to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands \nduring the next several days.  Depending on the exact track of the \nstorm, these swells are likely to increase early next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0900Z 13.3N 156.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 13.4N 157.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 13.5N 159.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 13.6N 160.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 13.7N 161.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 60H  05/1800Z 14.0N 162.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 14.5N 163.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 20.2N 162.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n \n"}