{"id": "1207026987255037955", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T09:00:00Z", "msg": "786\nWTPZ43 KNHC 030856\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026\n\nMarie continues to gradually become better organized, with very \ndeep convection near the center and a more symmetric convective \npattern.  Satellite estimates have slightly increased since the \nlast advisory, and the initial intensity is set to 75 kt, closest \nto the latest TAFB fix.  \n\nThe intensity forecast for Marie is tricky.  While it still has a \ncouple of days over warm waters with light shear, the structure \nremains somewhat broad, with a large outer wind field.  So far, \nthis has prevented anything other than gradual strengthening.  It \nis still a bit curious why most of the guidance don't intensify \nthis much during the next day or two, given the conducive \nlarge-scale environment.  While it is possible that Marie will be \naffected by the wake of Iselle, the forecast track could also be \nfar enough away to miss the bulk of the cooler SSTs.  The new \nforecast is raised from the previous one, splitting the difference \nbetween the higher SHIPS/LGEM/rapid intensification guidance and \nthe lower regional hurricane/corrected consensus models.  A steady \nweakening is likely after the system passes over colder waters in \nabout 3 days.\n\nMarie is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  There are no \nchanges to the previous synoptic pattern as this general course \nis anticipated to continue for the next several days due to a \nnarrow ridge to the north.  While this ridge weakens later on, \nMarie should slow down a bit, but stay moving west-northwestward.  \nThe new forecast is close to an update of the last one, near a \nconsensus of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the HFIP \nCorrected Consensus HCCA model.  \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0900Z 18.9N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 19.3N 115.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 19.8N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 20.3N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 21.0N 119.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 22.3N 121.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 22.9N 124.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}