{"msg": "423\nAXNT20 KNHC 030436\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0435 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is added to the 0000 UTC analysis/surface map \nalong 18W/19W south of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is noted\nfrom 07N to 14N E of 20W to the coast of W Africa.\nA tropical wave is along 44W, south of 20N, moving westward at\naround 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is on either side of\nthe trough axis from 12N to 17N between 40W and 48W. Moderate to\nfresh easterly winds are from 15N to 20N between 40W and 48W. \nA tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is\nalong 59W south of 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave \nis interacting with an upper-level trough to its west, and \nproducing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 24N between \n54W and 61W. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong\nwinds near the northern end of the wave axis, particularly from\n19N to 21N between 55W and 59W. Moisture associated with the wave\nwill increase the probability of rain across the Lesser Antilles \ntoday. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania\nnear 17N16W and continues westward to 14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ \nextends from 10N48W to 11N57W. In addition to the convection associated\nwith the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed\nfrom 05N to 08N between 20W and 35W. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak 1016 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf near 29N87W\ndominates the basin, and is supporting light to gentle winds and \nslight seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE\nwinds over the west-central waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms\nare affecting the western Florida peninsula and coastal waters. \nMeanwhile, the remnants of Edouard continue to add heavy rainfall \nto flooded areas across east Texas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure in place over the region will\ngenerally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate\nseas across the Gulf through the next few days. The presence of \nabundant tropical moisture will favor scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf through the weekend. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA surface trough extends across the central Bahamas and central \nCuba generating scattered to numerous showers, with embedded \nthunderstorms, over most of Cuba and the Cayman Islands. An\nupper-level low over the SE Gulf of America and the Yucatan \npeninsula is also helping to induce this convective activity. \nThe pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area \nand the Colombian Low supports fresh to locally strong trade winds\nover the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela.\nModerate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the central \nCaribbean while mainly moderate trades are noted over the eastern \npart of the basin. Gentle to locally moderate winds are occurring \nin the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with the strongest winds, \nand 3 to 5 elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where seas are 1 \nto 3 ft. \nFor the forecast, the trough will continue moving WNW through Thu\nnight while becoming diffuse. Elsewhere across the basin, the \npressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure\nin northern South America will maintain mostly fresh trades along\nwith moderate seas over the central Caribbean, and over the western\nportion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat night. These trades \nare forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds while expanding\nin coverage over the south-central portion of the basin on Sun. \nWinds reaching near gale are expected Mon night and Tue night near\nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong east winds\nare expected in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Mon night. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas \nwill continue across the remainder of the basin during the period.\n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nAs previously mentioned, a surface trough extends over the central\nBahamas and central Cuba, and is generating some shower and\nthunderstorm activity over the Bahamas and regional waters. The\nremainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence \nof a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1026 mb located \nNE of the Azores near 41N19W. The pressure gradient between the \nridge and a surface trough over Morocco and Western Sahara is \npromoting fresh to locally strong N to NE winds N of 20N and E of \n22W, including the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range\nwith this winds. Moderate to fresh winds are just offshore \nHispaniola with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds\nand moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms\nwill continue over the waters W of about 70W through the rest of \nthe week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift \nwestward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains\nin place. A cold front will then approach from the NW Sat through\nSun night enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms\nover the NW portion of the area. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge\nwill provide for generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas over the forecast waters. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206975872754253827", "issued": "2026-09-03T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206975872754253827"}