{"id": "1206954335208374275", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T03:00:00Z", "msg": "824\nWTPZ43 KNHC 030247\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026\n \nThe latest infrared satellite imagery shows a burst of convection is \nattempting to wrap around the center of Marie. This is a moderate \namount of improvement over the last several hours, as the hurricane \nseems to have shaken off the dry air seen earlier. The most recent \nTAFB subjective Dvorak fix is T4.5/77 kt and the UW-CIMSS objective \nintensity estimates are in the range of 62-75 kt. Based on the \ngiven data for this advisory, the initial intensity has been set to \n70 kt making Marie a hurricane. \n\nThe general motion for Marie is to the northwest at 320/10 kt, and \nthe cyclone is expected to maintain that heading for the next \nseveral days as a narrow mid-level ridge located to the north will \nsteer the hurricane off to the west-northwest. During this time, the \ncyclone should slow down as the ridge gradually weakens. There is \nstill a good amount of cross-track spread that is due to how much an \namplified mid-latitude trough, off the western United States coast, \nerodes the previously mentioned ridge. The current NHC track is \nsimilar to the previous track but slightly farther south. This track \nis still a bit north of the HCCA track. \n\nThe intensity for this forecast is a little higher than the previous \nforecast. Given that the hurricane is expected to continue to be in \nfavorable conditions with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), diagnosed \nby the SHIPS guidance between 27-29 C, relative humidity around 70 \npercent, and light wind shear, Marie is likely to continue to \nintensify. The peak forecast is tricky in this situation due to the \npotential for Marie to move over the cold wake left by Iselle last \nweek, as these waters may cap the peak intensity. Marie should be \ncrossing the 26 C SST isotherm after 60 h, and weakening is expected \nto begin in earnest beyond this time period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0300Z 18.4N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 19.7N 115.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  05/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 22.0N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 22.9N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 23.4N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}