{"id": "1206953738990878723", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T03:00:00Z", "msg": "723\nWTPA44 PHFO 030244\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  27\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026\n\n\nSince the last advisory, Lowell's satellite signature has decayed,\nwith the cloud tops in the eyewall warming and the eye becoming\nless distinct. This has been accompanied by a decrease in satellite\nintensity estimates. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported\n700-mb flight-level winds of 135 kt and a minimum central pressure\nnear 932-933 mb. Based on these data and continuity from the \nprevious advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly \ngenerous 135 kt. Satellite imagery gives the impression that the \nhurricane is being affected by easterly shear. However, if this is \nthe case, the source of the shear is a bit mysterious, as the\navailable shear diagnostics show shear of less than 10 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Currently, Lowell is being\nsteered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and due to this\nthe hurricane should continue moving westward for the next 2-3\ndays. After that, the track of the hurricane will be controlled by\na developing mid- to upper-level trough or low currently seen in\nwater vapor imagery near 32N 164W. During the next several days,\nthe global models forecast this feature to move eastward or\nsoutheastward toward the Hawaiian Islands, then turn westward to\nthe north of Lowell. While this will break down the ridge north of\nLowell and allow it to turn northward, there is a wide spread of\npossibilities of when and where this turn will occur. The model\nconsensus has again shifted a little eastward at day 4-5, and the\nnew forecast track is again nudged a little eastward at these times.\n \nThe hurricane is expected to stay in a favorable environment of\nhigh oceanic heat content and low shear for at least the next three\ndays. However, the intensity guidance calls for slow decay during\nthis time despite the favorable environment. Based on this, the\nintensity forecast also calls for slow decay. It is likely, though,\nthat eyewall replacement cycles will cause fluctuations in\nintensity superimposed on the slow decay.  Near the end of the\nforecast period, Lowell should start experiencing increasing shear\ncaused by the upper-level trough, and a more pronounced weakening\nmay begin around day 5. There remains high confidence that Lowell\nwill remain a major hurricane through the weekend.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. The details of Lowell's long-range track and intensity forecasts\nare more uncertain than usual, and it is too soon to determine\npotential impacts in the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the\nprogress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. This is a good\ntime for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and\nsupply kit in place.\n \n3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and\nrip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during\nthe next several days.  Depending on the exact track of the storm,\nthese swells are likely to increase early next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0300Z 13.3N 155.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 13.4N 156.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 13.5N 158.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 13.5N 159.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 13.6N 160.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 60H  05/1200Z 13.7N 162.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 14.2N 162.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 15.5N 163.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 18.6N 162.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n \n"}