{"id": "1206952762146947075", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-03T03:00:00Z", "msg": "518\nWTPZ41 KNHC 030239\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026\n\nLatest infrared satellite imagery of Karina suggests that convective \ncloud-top temperatures continue to warm. Karina continues to \nmaintain an annular appearance, while the eye remains cloud-filled. \nThe latest TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate held steady \nfrom 18z to 00z, at 5.5/6.5 or 127 kt. Objective intensity estimates \nfrom CIMSS vary around 105-110 kt. Given the warming cloud-top \ntemperatures over the last several hours, the initial intensity \nestimate was adjusted down slightly to 115 kt. \n\nKarina is currently moving west-northwestward around 9 kt. A \nsubtropical ridge to the north of Karina should cause the cyclone to \ncontinue moving west-northwestward for the next couple of days.  \nKarina is then expected to turn more northwesterly later this week \nas the subtropical ridge is weakened by an oncoming upper-level \ntrough.  Karina's track forecast was nudged slightly to the east of \nthe previous forecast, reflecting a blend of HCCA and GDMI. Models \nexhibit relatively strong agreement in Karina's track through the \nfirst 48 h, before spread increases thereafter.\n\nWhile vertical wind shear is expected to remain very weak over the \nnext 48 h, Karina is expected to track toward cooler SSTs and into \na drier mid-level environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast \nshows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous \nforecast, but still lies at the high end of the guidance envelope \nfor the first 3 days, and then closer to the intensity consensus \nat days 4 and 5. The hostile environmental conditions should \ncause Karina to lose its convection and become post-tropical by \nday 5.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0300Z 19.3N 134.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 19.7N 136.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 20.1N 137.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 20.6N 139.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 21.1N 141.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  05/1200Z 21.8N 142.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 22.7N 143.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 24.6N 145.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 26.1N 149.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}