{"id": "1206880786020892675", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T21:00:00Z", "msg": "357\nWTPZ41 KNHC 022033\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026\n \nKarina's satellite presentation has degraded this morning,\ncharacterized by warming cloud tops in infrared imagery and an eye\nthat has become more cloud-filled. The system is still annular,\nalthough there are signs of the system losing that structure in\nrecent microwave imagery that depicts the eastern eyewall has\nstarted to thin. The Data T-number from the latest TAFB Dvorak\nclassification has decreased to T5.5, with a Current Intensity (CI)\nof 6.5. Objective intensity estimates have also been gradually\ndecreasing since the previous advisory and currently range from 112\nto 127 kt. Given the degraded satellite appearance and a blend of\nthe available intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to\n120 kt for this advisory, which could be a little generous.\n \nThe steering pattern is well established, and a westward to\nwest-northwestward motion is anticipated over the next several days\nwhile the system is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.\nLater in the forecast period, a mid-level low is forecast to move\ninto the central Pacific north of the Hawaiian Islands. This feature\nwill cause the ridge to weaken, inducing a more northwestward turn.\nThe latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one\nand is based on a blend of the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.\n \nKarina will track over marginally warm sea surface temperatures over \nthe next few days with low wind shear. However, the system will be \nmoving into a drier, more stable airmass by tomorrow. This should \ninduce a gradual weakening trend during the next day or so. Wind \nshear is than expected to increase, combined with the track moving \nover cooler SSTs by 72 h, which will result in a more steady rate of \nweakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of \nthe intensity guidance in the near term, given the still annular \nstructure, followed by a faster rate closer to some of the consensus \nintensity aids. By Day 5, the system is forecast to become \npost-tropical as models show the system becoming devoid of \nconvection.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/2100Z 18.9N 133.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 19.8N 137.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 20.2N 139.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 20.6N 140.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  05/0600Z 21.2N 142.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 22.1N 143.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 24.1N 145.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 26.4N 149.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}