{"id": "1206880785569218563", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T21:00:00Z", "msg": "356\nWTPA44 PHFO 022033\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  26\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026\n \nLowell has continued to rapidly intensify over the Central Pacific \ntoday. The compact hurricane has maintained a very warm, circular \neye with a diameter of 15 n mi for the past several hours. A \nsymmetric ring of very deep convection surrounds the eye with cold \ncloud tops of -70 to -75 deg C. The subjective Dvorak and objective \nUW-CIMSS estimates have risen since the prior advisory, with a \nT7.0/140 kt classification from JTWC along with recent AiDT and \nD-PRINT estimates around 140 kt. Based on these developments, Lowell \nhas become a Category 5 hurricane with an initial intensity of 140 \nkt. A NOAA aircraft research mission is scheduled to collect data in \nLowell later today.\n\nSince the hurricane is moving over a region of very high oceanic \nheat content in a low shear environment, further near-term \nintensification remains possible. An eyewall replacement cycle \n(ERC) would be expected to commence in the near future, but the \nlatest available passive microwave images did not suggest an ERC is \nunderway. These favorable environmental and oceanic conditions are \nexpected to persist for the next several days, meaning that Lowell \nis likely to remain a major hurricane while internal dynamic \nprocesses like ERCs modulate its intensity fluctuations. The NHC \nintensity forecast remains on the high side of the latest guidance \nand follows the multi-model consensus aids, trending closer to IVCN \nlater in the period. There is high confidence that Lowell will \nremain a major hurricane through the weekend.\n\nLowell is moving just south of due west (265/9 kt). This motion is \nexpected to continue with a gradually slower forward speed during \nthe next few days as Lowell moves to the south of a mid-level ridge \nover the Central Pacific. A cutoff mid- to upper-level low is \nforecast to drop southwestward from the North Pacific and weaken the \nsteering ridge this weekend. Then, a sharp turn toward the north or \nnorth-northeast is forecast at days 4-5 while Lowell interacts with \nthis upper-level feature. There is large spread in the various \nmodels and ensemble solutions regarding how sharp of a turn occurs, \nbut once again the overall trend has been an eastward shift in the \nlong-range track envelope. Thus, the updated NHC track forecast \nwas adjusted to the right of the previous prediction at 96-120 h.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely\nmonitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/2100Z 13.3N 154.3W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 13.4N 155.6W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 13.5N 157.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 13.6N 158.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 13.7N 160.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 60H  05/0600Z 13.8N 161.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 14.1N 162.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 15.1N 163.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 17.4N 163.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n \n"}