{"msg": "203\nAXPZ20 KNHC 021530\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 18.8N 132.8W at 02/1500 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with\ngusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate \nto scattered strong convection is noted from 17N-22N between \n131W-135W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected \nover the next few days. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the \nSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in \nintensity are possible today, followed by slow weakening over the\nnext several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a \npowerful hurricane the next couple of days.\nTropical Storm Marie is centered near 17.1N 111.7W at 02/1500\nUTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt.  Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate \nto scattered strong convection is noted from 13N-21N between\n105W-114W. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by \ntonight, and that motion should continue through the weekend. \nSome strengthening is forecast through Friday, and Marie is \nlikely to become a hurricane later today. A gradual weakening \ntrend is expected over the weekend. Swells generated by Marie \nwill affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the \nBaja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely \nspread northward to southern California over the weekend. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nMarie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 90W, extending across Guatemala to 07N,\nmoving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is present from 03N to 16N between 87W and 97W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W and\nextends to 11N108W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring\nnorth of 07N east of 91W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong\nis also occurring from 03N-11N west of 115W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nTropical Storm Marie centered southwest of Mexico.\nAside from Marie, winds are NW fresh offshore of Baja California\nNorte with seas 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft over Pacific\nwaters and 1-4 ft over the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie is near 17.1N 111.7W at 8\nAM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds\nare 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure \nis 992 mb. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 112.8W\nthis evening, move to 18.7N 114.2W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.8W Thu\nevening, 20.1N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W Fri evening, and\n21.3N 119.8W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity \nas it moves to 22.5N 122.2W early Sun. Elsewhere, a tighter \npressure gradient will result in fresh to strong S to SE winds in\nthe N Gulf of California through Fri night.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh E winds with seas 5-6 ft are occurring today over the Gulf\nof Papagayo region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with\nseas 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of\n07N east of 91W.\nFor the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central \nAmerica will sustain fresh to locally strong E winds over the \nGulf of Papagayo through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or \nlighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and \nTropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico.\nAside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm \nMarie, moderate or weaker winds dominate the tropical NE\nPacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell from\nthe southwest is noted well west of the Galapagos Islands \nproducing seas to 8 ft.\nFor the forecast, Karina will move to 19.2N 134.2W this \nevening, 19.7N 136.2W Thu morning, 20.1N 138.2W Thu evening, \n20.5N 140.0W Fri morning, 21.0N 141.7W Fri evening, and 21.7N \n143.1W Sat morning. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm over \n23.6N 145.1W early Sun. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane \nnear 17.8N 112.8W this evening, move to 18.7N 114.2W Thu morning,\n19.4N 115.8W Thu evening, 20.1N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W\nFri evening, and 21.3N 119.8W Sat morning. Marie will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 122.2W early Sun. \nElsewhere, the cross equatorial SW swell will diminish below 8 ft\nby Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well \noffshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. Gradual \ndevelopment is possible early next week as the system moves west-\nnorthwestward around 10 kt, and is likely to remain well \noffshore of Mexico. Chance of tropical cyclone formation is\nlow...20 percent...through 7 days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206821307432173571", "issued": "2026-09-02T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206821307432173571"}